The Atlanta Braves (48-34) host the St. Louis Cardinals (44-39) Wednesday at Truist Park for the 3rd of their 4-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET.
Atlanta won the 1st two games of this series by a combined score of 13-4 and the Braves are 8-1 vs. the Cardinals since the beginning of last season.
Cardinals at Braves projected starters
RHP Miles Mikolas vs. LHP Max Fried
Mikolas is 5-6 with a 2.61 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 100 IP over 16 starts.
- Last start: Lost 5-3 Friday at the Philadelphia Phillies with 5 1/3 IP, 4 R (2 ER), 6 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 1 K.
- 2022 road splits: 3-4 with a 2.63 ERA (48 IP, 14 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 4 HR and 6.9 K/9 in 8 starts.
Fried is 8-2 with a 2.66 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 101 1/3 IP over 16 starts.
- Last start: Won 9-1 Friday at the Cincinnati Reds with 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 4 K.
- 2021 vs. the Cardinals: 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA (13 IP, 1 ER), 0.69 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 in 2 starts.
Cardinals at Braves odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Cardinals +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Braves -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +1.5 (-145) | Braves -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
Cardinals at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 5, Cardinals 3
Money line
BET the BRAVES (-180) since they have a 3-phase edge over the Cardinals (+145) in starting and relief pitching and hitting and this is a bad spot for St. Louis.
Fried has a .236/.281/.347 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line with an 84.6 mph exit velocity (EV) in 48 plate appearances (PA) vs. active Cardinals hitters, per Statcast. Mikolas is .268/.355/.518 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line with a 89.5 mph EV in 48 PA vs. current Braves batters.
Furthermore, Atlanta’s bullpen is 3rd in both xFIP (3.62) and K/BB rate (3.32) and 5th in hard-hit rate (35.8%). Whereas St. Louis’s bullpen is 21st in xFIP (4.05), 22nd in K/BB (2.41) and 14th in hard-hit rate (37.9%).
Also, Atlanta’s lineup is better than St. Louis’s by wOBA (.329-.319), hard-hit rate (43.5-34.9%), EV (89.9-87.6 mph) and barrel rate (11.3-6.5%), according to FanGraphs.
Finally, the Braves are 6-3 straight up (SU) as home favorites of -150 or greater with Fried on the bump while the Cardinals are 1-3 SU as road underdogs vs. left-handed starters.
BET the BRAVES (-180).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Cardinals +1.5 (-145) are 3-1 RL as road underdogs vs. left-handed starters despite their 1-3 SU record and the Braves are just 17-21 RL as home favorites even though Atlanta is 25-13 SU as home favorites.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-102) only because I feel stronger about Atlanta’s ML and the Over 8.5 (-122) appears to be the sharper side since it’s pricier.
However, both teams have their top power-ranked starter on the hill, the Braves are 0-4 O/U in their last 4 games vs. righty starters and the Cardinals are 0-7-2 O/U in their last 9 games vs. lefty starters.
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