The Houston Astros (43-25) travel to Yankee Stadium Thursday to begin a 4-game series with the New York Yankees (51-18) at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Houston won an interleague back-to-back vs. the New York Mets Tuesday-Wednesday and the Astros are 7-3 straight up (SU) over their last 10 games.
The Yankees stole the rubber match of their 3-game set with the Tampa Bay Rays 5-4 Wednesday keyed by a 2-run home run by C Jose Trevino in the top of the 8th inning. N.Y. is 8-2 SU over the last 10.
The Yankees beat the Astros in last year’s season series 4-2 and N.Y. had a plus-8 run differential in those meetings.
Astros at Yankees projected starters
LHP Framber Valdez vs. RHP Jameson Taillon
Valdez is 7-3 with a 2.78 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 81 IP over 13 starts.
- Last start: Wonn 13-3 at home vs. the Chicago White Sox June 17 with 5 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 HR, 3 BB and 3 K.
- 2021 vs. the Yankees: One start, a no-decision in Houston’s 8-7 home win July 11 with 4 IP, 3 R (2 ER), 6 H, 1 HR, 6 BB and 5 K.
Taillon is 8-1 with a 2.70 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 73 1/3 IP over 13 starts.
- Last start: Won 4-0 Saturday at the Toronto Blue Jays with 5 2/3 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 2 BB and 8 K.
- 2021 vs. the Astros: One start, a no-decision in N.Y.’s 8-7 road loss July 11 with 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 HR, 2 BB and 4 K.
Astros at Yankees odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Astros +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Yankees -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-190) | Yankees -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
Astros at Yankees picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 5, Astros 3
Money line
BET the YANKEES (-130) because they have edges in the starting pitching and hitting departments. Taillon had a better outing than Valdez in last year’s Astros-Yankees July 11 meeting.
Taillon has a .187/.241/.297 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line with a 20.0 K% and 88.6 mph exit velocity (EV) in 45 plate appearances (PA) vs. current Astros, per statcast.
Valdez has a .233/.321/.327 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line with a 13.3 K% and 89.0 mph EV in 60 PA vs. active Yankees.
Also, the Yankees are 9-0 SU at home vs. lefty starters with a plus-1.9 margin of victory and the Astros are 2-3 SU as road underdogs vs. righty starters.
BET the YANKEES (-130).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Astros +1.5 (-190) are 6-1 RL as underdogs and the Yankees -1.5 (+155) are just 18-18 RL as home favorites. Granted, N.Y.’s RL is a juicy payout but it’s tough laying -1.5 against this Houston team.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-115) only because I prefer N.Y.’s ML and the Over 8.5 (-107) appears to be the sharper side of the total.
However, Astros-Yankees have a combined 10-16 O/U record when these starters are on the hill, Houston is 3-6 O/U as underdogs and N.Y. is 16-20 RL as home favorites.