The Minnesota Twins (30-23) head to the Rogers Centre Friday to start a 3-game series with the Toronto Blue Jays (30-20) at 7:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Twins vs. Blue Jays odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Minnesota just lost 4 of a 5-game series on the road vs. the Detroit Tigers and the Twins are just 3-7 straight up (SU) in their last 10 games.
Toronto is on an 8-game winning streak, which includes a 4-game sweep of the Angels in Los Angeles last week and a 3-game sweep of the Chicago White Sox earlier this week.
The Blue Jays beat the Twins 4-3 in last year’s season series, but Minnesota had a plus-3 run differential in those meetings.
Twins at Blue Jays projected starters
RHP Chi Chi Gonzalez vs. LHP Yusei Kikuchi
Gonzalez is making his 2022 and Minnesota team debut Friday after pitching for the Colorado Rockies from 2019-21.
- Was 3-7 in 2021 with a 6.46 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 5.0 K/9 in 101 2/3 IP across 18 starts and 8 relief appearances.
Kikuchi is 2-1 with a 3.48 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 5.2 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 41 1/3 IP over 9 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in Toronto’s 6-5 win at the Angels Saturday with 5 IP, 2 ER, 9 H, 1 BB and 4 K.
- 2021 vs. the Twins: One start while pitching for the Seattle Mariners, a no-decision in Seattle’s 4-3 win in Minnesota April 10 with 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 6 K.
Twins at Blue Jays odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Twins +175 (bet $100 to win $175) | Blue Jays -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins +1.5 (-112) | Blue Jays -1.5 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
Twins at Blue Jays picks and predictions
Prediction
Blue Jays 8, Twins 4
Money line
PASS.
The Blue Jays (-220) are just too pricey since the Twins (+175) are 5-3 SU as road underdogs so I’ll default to Toronto’s cheaper RL instead.
Run line/Against the spread
BET a half-unit on the BLUE JAYS -1.5 (-108) because they are just 8-15 RL as home favorites while the Twins +1.5 (-112) are 5-3 RL as road underdogs. Also, 4 of Toronto’s 8 consecutive wins have been 1-run games.
However, Gonzalez was one of the least effective starters in the NL while pitching for the Rockies and Toronto’s lineup is red-hot at the moment.
Over the last two weeks, the Blue Jays are 1st in both BB/K rate (0.55) and barrel rate (12.1%) and 2nd in wRC+ (137), wOBA (.362), hard-hit rate (44.9%) and exit velocity (90.1 mph), according to FanGraphs.
The value of MLB RLs is fringe at the moment but I’ll BET the BLUE JAYS -1.5 (-108) for a half-unit.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 9.5 (-108) since both lineups have sluggers, Gonzalez has a career 5.64 ERA, Kikuchi is a bottom-of-the-rotation starter, Minnesota is 5-3 O/U as road underdogs and Toronto is 5-0 O/U in their last 5 games.
But, the Over almost feels too easy here and the Under has cashed in 6 consecutive Twins-Blue Jays meetings.
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