The Cleveland Guardians (22-24) head to Oriole Park at Camden Yards Friday to start a 3-game set with the Baltimore Orioles (22-31). First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Guardians vs. Orioles odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Cleveland completed a 3-game sweep at home vs. the Kansas City Royals Monday-Wednesday but the Guardians are just 5-5 straight up (SU) over their last 10 games.
Baltimore lost the rubber match of a 3-game set at the Seattle Mariners Thursday 7-6 in extra innings and the Orioles are 4-6 SU in their last 10 contests.
The Guardians beat the Orioles in last year’s season series 5-2 and Cleveland had a plus-5 run differential in those meetings.
Guardians at Orioles projected starters
RHP Shane Bieber vs. LHP Bruce Zimmermann
Bieber is 2-3 with a 3.19 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 53 2/3 IP over 9 starts.
- Last start: Win, 8-1, Saturday at the Detroit Tigers with 8 IP, 1 ER, 8 H, 0 BB and 5 K.
- 2022 road splits: 1-1 with a 2.17 ERA (37 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.13 WHIP and 3.8 K/BB rate in 6 starts.
Zimmermann is 2-3 with a 4.53 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 51 2/3 IP across 10 starts.
- Last start: Loss, 12-2, Sunday at the Boston Red Sox with 4 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 5 HR, 1 BB and 2 K.
- 2022 home splits: 1-0 with a 3.24 ERA (25 IP, 9 ER), 1.20 WHIP and 3.0 K/BB rate in 5 starts.
Guardians at Orioles odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Guardians -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Orioles +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+110) | Orioles +1.5 (-135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
Guardians at Orioles picks and predictions
Prediction
Orioles 4, Guardians 2
Money line
LEAN ORIOLES (+125) because the Guardians are going for a suspiciously low price with Bieber on the bump who’s the 2022 American League Cy Young winner vs. a Baltimore team sitting at the bottom of the AL East.
However, Cleveland has lost 5 consecutive Bieber starts vs. AL East teams and he’s struggled to regain his 2020 Cy Young form after spending most of 2021 on the IL. Bieber ranks in the 41st percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, exit velocity, barrel rate and fastball velocity, according to Statcast.
It’s only a LEAN to the ORIOLES (+125) because the Guardians are 6-2 SU as road favorites and the Under is my favorite bet in this game.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Orioles +1.5 (-135) is a no-go even though Baltimore is 16-7 RL as a home underdog because the Guardians are 5-3 RL as road favorites and, again, the Under feels like a sharp play.
Over/Under
BET 0.75 units on the UNDER 7.5 (+105) only because we are getting to the party a little late on the total, which has been lowered from an 8.5-run opener, according to Pregame.com.
Baltimore’s lineup ranks 24th in WAR (3.6), 22nd in wRC+ (93), 25th in wOBA (.297) and 26th in BB/K rate (0.32), per FanGraphs. Cleveland’s lineup struggles vs. left-handed pitching: 27th in both wRC+ (87) and wOBA (.286) and 25th in home runs (9).
Zimmermann’s advanced pitching numbers are nothing to write home about but he’s been very solid at home. He has allowed 11 fewer home runs (12-1) at home and Zimmermann’s ERA is 2.50 lower than his road mark (5.74). Also, Cleveland’s bullpen is 4th (3.15) in ERA and Baltimore’s ‘pen is 5th (3.19).
BET UNDER 7.5 (+105).
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