The Los Angeles Angels (27-22) head to Yankee Stadium Tuesday to start a 3-game series with the New York Yankees (33-15) at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Angels vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.

L.A. is on a 5-game losing skid, which includes a 4-game sweep at home by the Toronto Blue Jays Thursday-Sunday. The Angels are just 3-7 straight up (SU) over their last 10 games.

N.Y. lost back-to-back games at the Tampa Bay Rays Saturday and Sunday to split their 4-game series but the Yankees are still 6-4 SU over their last 10.

The Angels beat the Yankees in last year’s season series 4-3 but N.Y. had a plus-2 run differential in those meetings.

Angels at Yankees projected starters

RHP Noah Syndergaard vs. LHP Jordan Montgomery 

Syndergaard is 4-2 with a 3.08 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 in 38 IP over 7 starts.

• Last start: Win, 5-3, last Tuesday at home vs. the Texas Rangers with 8 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 5 K.

Montgomery is 0-1 with a 3.30 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 46 1/3 IP across 9 starts.

• Last start: No-decision in N.Y.’s 7-6 home win vs. the Baltimore Orioles last Tuesday with 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 5 K.

Angels at Yankees odds and lines

• Money line (ML): Angels +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Yankees -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Angels +1.5 (-180) | Yankees -1.5 (+145)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

Angels at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 4, Angels 3

Money line

LEAN YANKEES (-140) only because I prefer the Under, N.Y.’s lineup has been struggling lately and the presumed sharp side of the market is backing the Angels while the public is taking the Yankees, per Pregame.com.

But, Montgomery has better swing-and-miss and contact rates than Syndergaard and grades better in K% and BB% (according to Statcast). Also, N.Y.’s bullpen ranks in the top-5 in ERA, xFIP, home runs allowed per 9 innings and exit velocity (EV), all ahead of L.A.’s bullpen (per FanGraphs).

The Yankees are 30-14 straight up (SU) as favorites and 22-10 SU vs. right-handed starters while the Angels are 5-6 SU as underdogs and 8-6 SU against lefty starters.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

N.Y.’s lineup ranks 24th or worse in WAR, wRC+, wOBA and EV over the last two weeks so the Yankees -1.5 (+145) is a no-go.

Over/Under

BET the UNDER 8.5 (-102) since these teams have a combined 4-10 O/U record when these starters get the nod, N.Y.’s lineup has been ice-cold recently, L.A. is 0-4 O/U in the last 4 games following a day off and there’s suspicious reverse line movement headed south of the total.

Nearly two-thirds of the cash wagered is on the Over but the total has been lowered from a 9-run opener down to the current number according to pregame.com. This suggests oddsmakers are trying to entice more pro-Over action.

Let’s fade the market backing a “square” Over and BET UNDER 8.5 (+105).

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