The Los Angeles Dodgers (27-12) conclude their 3-game series at Citizens Bank Park with the Philadelphia Phillies (18-22) Sunday. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET.
L.A. won the first 2 games of this series by a combined score of 11-5 but the Dodgers-Phillies season series is tied 3-3 and Philly has a plus-2 run differential in those meetings.
Dodgers at Phillies projected starters
RHP Tony Gonsolin vs. RHP Zach Eflin
Gonsolin is 4-0 with a 1.64 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 33 IP over 7 starts.
- Last start: Win, 5-4, at home vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks Monday with 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 7 K.
- 2021 vs. the Phillies: No-decision in L.A.’s 3-1 home win June 14 with 3 2/3 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB and 5 K.
- vs. Phillies on the current roster: 2.53 FIP with a .222/.287/.283 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 28.6 K% and 91.3 mph exit velocity (EV) in 14 plate appearances (PA).
Eflin is 1-3 with a 3.90 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 30 IP across 6 starts.
- Last start: Loss, 3-0, at home vs. the San Diego Padres Tuesday with 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 5 K.
- 2021 vs. the Dodgers: No-decision in Philly’s 5-3 loss at L.A. June 15 with 5 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 0 BB and 2 K.
- vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 6.97 FIP with a .233/.322/.456 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 20.5 K% and 88.5 mph EV in 112 PA.
Dodgers at Phillies odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Dodgers -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Phillies +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers -1.5 (+115) | Phillies +1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
Dodgers at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Dodgers 5, Phillies 2
Money line
GIMME the DODGERS (-140) because they have a 3-phase edge over the Phillies in starting and relief pitching and hitting.
Both Gonsolin and Eflin have fantastic advanced pitching numbers thus far in 2022 but I’m higher on Gonsolin since he has a career 2.62 ERA and 3.59 FIP whereas Eflin has a career 4.52 ERA and 4.38 FIP.
Only 4 of Eflin’s 6 pitches have a minus-run value, according to Statcast, while 3 of Gonsolin’s 4 pitches have a minus-run value and his splitter has the fourth-best run value in baseball.
The Dodgers are 15-8 vs. right-handed starters and rank 1st in wRC+ (123), wOBA (.341) and BB/K rate (0.56) and 2nd in hard-hit rate (34.7%) against righties, per FanGraphs.
Conversely, the Phillies are 11-17 against righty starters and rank 22nd in BB/K rate (0.33) and 18th in hard-hit rate (28.9%) vs. right-handed pitching.
L.A.’s bullpen ranks 2nd in xFIP (3.30) and 1st in both EV (85.9 mph) and hard-hit rate (26.6%), according to FanGraphs. Philly’s bullpen is 26th in xFIP (4.20) and 21st in hard-hit rate (39.6%).
BET the DODGERS (-140).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS because the Dodgers -1.5 (+115) isn’t a steep enough payout even though L.A. is 11-7 RL as a road favorite.
Over/Under
BET the UNDER 9.5 (-115) because both starters grade in the 90th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, expected ERA and xwOBA, according to Statcast.
The Dodgers are also 5-11-2 O/U as road favorites, the Phillies are 0-3 O/U as home underdogs and Citizens Bank Park has the lowest run factor in MLB.
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