The No. 1 seed Miami Heat (2-1) meet the No. 8 seed Atlanta Hawks (1-2) Sunday at State Farm Arena for Game 3 of their Eastern Conference first-round playoff series. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET and the game broadcasts on TNT. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Hawks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Atlanta held serve on its home floor Friday by beating Miami in a 111-110 Game 3 nail-biter. Hawks All-Star PG Trae Young hit a go-ahead floater with 5.5 seconds remaining then Atlanta defended a would-be game-winning shot by Heat All-Star wing Jimmy Butler as time expired.
Miami is outperforming Atlanta in three of the “four factors” and scoring 11.2 more points per 100 possessions in these playoffs. Butler has been the best player in the Heat-Hawks series, scoring 28.7 points per game (PPG) on 61.7% true shooting (.533/.429/.727) with a plus-22 net rating.
Heat at Hawks odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Heat -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Hawks +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Against the spread: Heat -1.5 (-120) | Hawks +1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 220.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
Heat at Hawks key injuries
Heat
- C Bam Adebayo (quadriceps) questionable
- PG Kyle Lowry (hamstring) questionable
- PF P.J. Tucker (calf) questionable
- PG Gabe Vincent (toe) probable
Hawks
- C Clint Capela (knee) questionable
Heat at Hawks picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 114, Hawks 110
Money line
LEAN HEAT (-135) because the Hawks could be without their defensive anchor for a third consecutive game in Capela and there’s reverse line movement (RLM) headed towards Miami.
Capela is essential to Atlanta’s pick-and-roll (PnR) offense, rim and paint protection and rebounding. The Heat are a far better rebounding team than the Hawks, allowed the fewest paint PPG during the regular season and were ninth in defensive efficiency versus PnR through ball handlers.
Roughly two-thirds of the money is on the Hawks but the Heat’s ML has been steamed from the -115 opener up to the current number according to pregame.com. It’s a red flag whenever the sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.
That said, it’s only a LEAN to the HEAT (-135) since Capela’s game status has been upgraded to “questionable” and the Hawks are 5-3 overall as home underdogs.