The No. 6 seed Denver Nuggets (0-3) try to keep their season alive when they host the No. 3 seed Golden State Warriors (3-0) Sunday. Tip-off at Ball Arena is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Nuggets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Golden State beat Denver 118-113 in Game 3 Thursday, covering as a 2.5-point road favorite and the Over cashed on a 223-point total.
The Nuggets gave an all-in effort, nearly tripling the Warriors in rebounding rate and outperforming Golden State in three of the “four factors.” Denver big, and MVP finalist, Nikola Jokic scored a game-high 37 points on 63.6% shooting with 18 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 steals.
However, the Warriors sunk seven more 3-pointers than the Nuggets and outshot Denver 67.6-56.9% in effective field goal rate (eFG%).
Warriors at Nuggets odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Warriors -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Nuggets +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
- Against the spread: Warriors -4.5 (-112) | Nuggets +4.5 (-108)
- Over/Under: 224.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
Warriors at Nuggets key injuries
Warriors
- None
Nuggets
- PG Jamal Murray (knee) out
- PF Michael Porter Jr. (back) out
Warriors at Nuggets picks and predictions
Prediction
Nuggets 116, Warriors 112
Money line
PASS with a “lean” towards the Nuggets (+155) since I’m on Denver plus the points and generally will sprinkle on an underdog’s ML when betting their spread.
However, the Warriors are outperforming the Nuggets in three of the “four factors” and are scoring 14.4 more points per 100 possessions in this series.
Denver has no answer for Golden State’s 3-guard lineup with Steph Curry, Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson, all of which are shooting at least 50.0% from the field and 44.0% from behind the arc.
Despite how bleak things look for the Nuggets, they can stave off elimination if the Warriors have an off-shooting night and Denver’s role players step up and help out Jokic. But, I wouldn’t bet on it.
PASS.