The Boston Red Sox (6-7) stop by Tropicana Field Friday to start a three-game series with the Tampa Bay Rays (7-6) at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Boston lost its previous set at home to the Toronto Blue Jays 2-1 earlier this week after splitting their four-game series with the Minnesota Twins last weekend.

Tampa split its six-game road trip to Chicago entering Friday after losing its White Sox series 2-1 last weekend followed by a 2-1 series victory at the Cubs Monday-Wednesday.

The Rays beat the Red Sox 11-8 in last year’s regular-season series and Tampa outscored Boston 106-104 in those meetings.

Red Sox at Rays: Projected starters

RHP Michael Wacha vs. RHP Corey Kluber 

Wacha (0-0, 0.96 ERA) earned his second no-decision Sunday in Boston’s 8-1 win versus the Twins. He went 5 IP, allowing 0 ER on 1 H and 2 BB with 5 K. It’s a revenge game for Wacha who was in Tampa’s starting rotation in 2021.

• vs. Rays on the current roster: 4.19 FIP with a .290 batting average (BA), .336 wOBA, .382 xSLG, 18.2 K% and 80.3 mph exit velocity (EV) in 33 plate appearances (PA).

Kluber (0-0, 1.86 ERA) also has two no-decisions under his belt, pitching 4 2/3 innings of scoreless ball in Tampa’s 8-0 win over the Baltimore Orioles April 10 and allowing just 2 ER over 5 IP in Tampa’s 3-2 loss at the White Sox Saturday.

• vs. Red Sox on the current roster: 4.62 FIP with a .218 BA, .304 wOBA, .410 xSLG, 25.7 K% and 90.2 mph EV in 109 PA.

Red Sox at Rays odds and lines

• Money line (ML): Red Sox +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Rays -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-165) | Rays +1.5 (+133)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

Red Sox at Rays picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 5, Rays 3

Money line

TAKE the RED SOX (+125) because they have a slight edge over the Rays in the starting and relief pitching departments and these lineups are more or less equal.

It’s early but through two starts Wacha grades in the 95th percentile of EV, 85th percentile in expected wOBA and 99th percentile in xSLG, according to Statcast. Kluber is in the 50th percentile or lower in all of those metrics and Boston should have at least five hitters with a plus-run value versus curveballs, which is Kluber’s most used pitch of his arsenal.

Tampa’s bullpen will most likely finish as one of the better units in baseball but, at the moment, the Rays have a bunch of talented arms on the IL. Boston’s bullpen ranks fourth in FIP through the first three weeks whereas Tampa’s is 19th, per FanGraphs.

BET RED SOX (+125).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I don’t like Boston enough to take its alternate RL and the Red Sox +1.5 (-165) is too expensive of a line versus one of baseball’s top-five teams in the Rays.

Over/Under

PASS with a “lean” towards the Over 7.5 (-130) because the Red Sox-Rays is 27-11-2 O/U in their last 40 meetings and neither starter is a “top-of-the-rotation” guy.

However, I don’t like the idea of laying -130 here since most of the situational trends point to the Under and the total is being lowered by a sharp line move perhaps.