Grizzlies vs Trail Blazers – A 10-Point Spread for This Blazers Team? Let’s Debate.

Alright fellas, time to break down another Friday night slate. We’ve got a West Coast matchup between the Grizzlies and the Trail Blazers, and the books have thrown down a pretty significant number here. This is the first of a back-to-back set between these two, which always adds a little spice. Let’s get into the weeds and see if we can find an angle.

1. The Matchup:

• Who: Memphis Grizzlies (Away) @ Portland Trail Blazers (Home)
• When: Friday, February 6, 2026, at 10:00 PM EST
• Where: Moda Center, Portland, Oregon
• How to Watch: You can catch this one on ESPN, with streaming options on Fubo and Prime Video.

2. The Breakdown:

• Memphis Grizzlies: To put it bluntly, this team is a walking MAS*H unit. The injury report is a disaster. Ja Morant, Brandon Clarke, and Zach Edey are all out with long-term injuries. Adding to the misery for tonight, C Santi Aldama is confirmed out, and PG Scotty Pippen Jr. is a game-time decision. This isn’t just a team missing its star; it’s a team missing its entire core. They are simply trying to field a team and get through the game.

• Portland Trail Blazers: The Blazers aren’t exactly setting the league on fire, coming into this one with a 4-6 record in their last 10 games. However, compared to Memphis, they’re the picture of health. They will be without Kris Murray and Matisse Thybulle, but they are at home and have most of their key contributors available. Look for center Donovan Clingan to have a significant advantage on the glass against the depleted Grizzlies frontcourt.

3. Key Trends & Stats:

This is where it gets interesting. The data paints a clear picture.

• Portland at Home: The Blazers are a respectable 15-11 against the spread (ATS) at home this season. For a sub-.500 team, that’s a strong indicator they show up for the home crowd.
• Memphis’ Struggles: The Grizzlies have one of the worst cover percentages in the league at just 42.9% (21-28 ATS overall). They are a team that has consistently underperformed market expectations.
• The Under: The Under has hit in 55.1% of Grizzlies games this season. With their offense completely gutted by injuries, this makes perfect sense.
• Head-to-Head: For what it’s worth, the Blazers hold the all-time regular season edge over the Grizzlies, 60-49.

4. The Betting Odds:

• Spread: Trail Blazers -10 (-112) / Grizzlies +10 (-108)
• Moneyline: Trail Blazers -390 / Grizzlies +310
• Total: 235.5

The odds are telling us what we already know: the market expects a blowout. A -390 moneyline implies nearly an 80% chance of a Blazers victory. The 10-point spread is a direct reflection of the Grizzlies’ catastrophic injury situation. The most surprising line is the total at 235.5. For a Memphis team that can barely score and has a strong under trend, that number feels incredibly high.

5. My Pick & Why:

Laying double-digits with a team that has a negative point differential on the season is usually a recipe for disaster. It’s a cardinal sin for many sharp bettors, and I get it.

However, rules are meant to be broken when the situation is this extreme.

The Grizzlies aren’t just a bad team right now; they’re barely an NBA-caliber team. The sheer volume of injuries to key offensive and defensive players—Morant, Clarke, Aldama—is insurmountable. This isn’t about trends from September; this is about the 8 or 9 healthy bodies they can put on the floor tonight.

Portland, for all its flaws, is playing at home and is significantly healthier. Their 15-11 ATS record at the Moda Center shows they can handle business against teams they’re supposed to beat. The Grizzlies are absolutely a team they are supposed to beat, and beat soundly. This is a get-right spot for Portland against what is essentially a G-League roster.

I’m not overthinking this one. I’m trusting what my eyes and the injury report are telling me over the general fear of laying a big number.

My Pick: Trail Blazers -10 (-112)

This is a bet on the Grizzlies’ complete lack of personnel more than it is a bet on the Blazers’ prowess. I think Portland rolls.

What’s everyone else thinking? Am I crazy for laying the 10 points here, or is this the most logical play on the board?

Disclaimer: This article is for entertainment purposes only. All betting information is provided for informational purposes and is not a recommendation to wager.

Sources:
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Portland Trail Blazers All-time Head-to-Head …
Portland Trail Blazers vs Memphis Grizzlies Basketball Head To …
2025-26 Team Comparison – Memphis Grizzlies vs. Portland Trail …
Trail Blazers vs Grizzlies scores & predictions – Sofascore
Memphis Grizzlies vs Portland Trail Blazers H2H – livescores.biz
Game Preview: Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers – 4/11/25 – NBA
Jordan Poole could make return vs. Trail Blazers
Portland Trail Blazers vs Memphis Grizzlies History
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: Injury Report, Game Preview Nov. 24, 2025
Warriors Defeat Trail Blazers, Remain in Sixth Place in … – NBA