Game Details:
- Matchup: New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals
- Date: Sunday, November 23
- Time: 1:00 PM EST
- Spread: Patriots -7.5
- Total: 49.5
Patriots Look to Capitalize as Bengals Lose Their Star
The New England Patriots travel to Cincinnati for a Week 12 AFC matchup, but the central story of this game was decided before the teams even take the field. The Patriots enter as heavy 7.5-point road favorites, a line driven almost entirely by the devastating news for the Bengals: star quarterback Joe Burrow has been ruled out.
According to reports from Ian Rapoport and confirmed by Head Coach Zac Taylor, Burrow will not be activated from injured reserve due to a toe injury. This crushing blow leaves a struggling Cincinnati team, which has lost four of its last five games, in an incredibly vulnerable position against a solid Patriots squad.
Can New England Cover the Big Number?
The Patriots, led by rookie quarterback Drake Maye, have a prime opportunity to secure a key road win. While Maye is still developing, he faces a Bengals team in disarray and without its leader. The Patriots’ offense will look to control the tempo against a defense that may be on the field for long stretches.
However, New England is not without its own personnel issues. The defense will be missing a key piece, as linebacker Jahlani Tavai has been ruled out for personal reasons. His absence could impact their ability to contain the run and cover the middle of the field. The health of running back TreVeyon Henderson, who was injured in a recent game, will also be a situation to monitor. Despite these concerns, the Patriots’ game plan will likely be to play disciplined, mistake-free football and force Cincinnati’s backup quarterback into errors.
All Eyes on the Bengals’ Backup Plan
With Burrow officially sidelined, the Bengals are expected to turn the offense over to a veteran backup, likely Joe Flacco. Flacco, who has been dealing with a shoulder issue of his own in recent weeks, faces the monumental task of jump-starting an offense that has been sputtering even with its Pro Bowl quarterback.
The Bengals’ recent form is alarming, with a record of just one win in their last five contests. Without Burrow’s leadership and elite playmaking ability, it’s difficult to see how they can generate enough offense to keep pace. The pressure will fall squarely on the defense and the running game to keep this contest from getting out of hand early.
Prediction and Best Bet
This game hinges on one factor: the absence of Joe Burrow. A 7.5-point spread is significant for a road team, but the drop-off from Burrow to a backup quarterback is one of the steepest in the NFL. The Bengals were struggling before this injury, and now their offensive ceiling is severely capped.
The Patriots’ defense, even without Tavai, should be able to contain a Flacco-led offense. On the other side of the ball, Drake Maye should be able to do just enough against a dispirited Bengals team to build a comfortable lead. The total of 49.5 feels high for a game featuring a rookie QB and a backup, with one offense likely to struggle to score points. The under is a strong play here.
The Patriots know this is a game they must win, and they are catching the Bengals at their absolute lowest point. Expect New England to play a conservative, but effective, game and win by double digits.
Prediction: New England Patriots 24, Cincinnati Bengals 13
The Pick: Patriots -7.5The Total: Under 49.5****Sources:
Official New England Patriots Injury and Practice Participation Reports
New England Patriots Injury Status – ESPN
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New England Patriots Injury Report and Status 2025-26 – CBS Sports