Battle of the Bottom-Feeders: Fading the Decimated Pacers in Brooklyn

Alright everyone, time for a look at a game many will overlook tonight: Pacers at Nets. But after Indiana just pulled off a huge upset, we need to re-evaluate everything. Is it still a fade of a decimated team, or a trap? Let’s get into it.

1. The Matchup

• Game: Indiana Pacers (15-40) at Brooklyn Nets (15-37)
• Time: Wednesday, Feb 11, 7:40 PM EST
• Venue: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
• Watch: FanDuel Sports Network Indiana, YES Network (Brooklyn)

This looked like a tank-a-thon, but now we have to factor in a massive recent result for the Pacers.

2. The Breakdown

• Indiana Pacers: Well, color me wrong (and the books too!). The Pacers just pulled off a huge upset, going into Madison Square Garden last night and taking down a red-hot Knicks team 137-134. Forward Johnny Furphy for the season with a torn ACL.

. On top of that, PF Obi Toppin is confirmed out with a foot injury, and Jarace Walker is a game-time decision. After the huge win, the team may also be riding high on adrenaline.

• Brooklyn Nets: Don’t get me wrong, the Nets are not a good basketball team. But compared to the injuries listed for the Pacers, they are a picture of health, even if Nicolas Claxton and Noah Clowney are confirmed to be in the report. They’re coming off a solid win over the Wizards where they looked competent, and could be hungering for victory.

3. Key Trends & Stats

This is where the analysis gets messy. That huge win for the Pacers throws a huge wrench in it all.

• The Pacers are an abysmal 10-16 against the spread (ATS) on the road. This isn’t just bad luck; it’s a pattern of underperformance away from home. Their average ATS margin is -2.4, meaning they fail to cover the spread by nearly a full possession on average.
• The Nets, while having a terrible straight-up record, are a respectable 14-12 ATS at home. They play better at Barclays and tend to exceed the market’s (admittedly low) expectations.

However, there is no accounting for what the win over the Knicks did to the numbers.

4. The Betting Odds

• Moneyline: Pacers +156 / Nets -186
• Spread: Nets -5 (-108)
• Total: 214.5

The betting market is reacting to what the Pacers pulled off against the Knicks last night, and in turn may be a bit of a trap. Can the Pacers do it again?

5. My Pick & Why

Despite that upset over the Knicks, don’t let that distract from the actual injuries that plague the team. This is an away game, and in turn the odds are all stacked against them

This is where everything has to be thought out: The Nets’ injury list, their own underperformance, and a chance to exploit the numbers again as people chase the underdogs and try to turn a profit.

My Pick: Nets -5 (-108)

I’m laying the points with the home team. The odds have swung, but all evidence points towards this still being a likely dub for the Nets at the very least for what they were. That Knicks win cannot distract from the truth, and you simply have to place your money against the current situation.

Here’s my final take.

Am I missing something, or is this still the right road to go? Let me know what you’re all on

Disclaimer: This article is for entertainment purposes only. All betting information is provided for informational purposes and is not a recommendation to wager.