Game Preview: Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan State Spartans
Game Details
- Matchup: Penn State Nittany Lions (3-6) at Michigan State Spartans (3-6)
- Date: Saturday, November 15
- Time: 3:30 PM EST
- Location: East Lansing, MI
- Point Spread: Penn State -7.5
- Total: 49.5
Game Preview
A season that began with promise for two Big Ten programs has devolved into a battle for pride as the Penn State Nittany Lions and Michigan State Spartans, both sitting at a disappointing 3-6, meet in East Lansing. With bowl eligibility a distant dream, this matchup for the Land-Grant Trophy is about salvaging a win from a lost season.
Penn State’s campaign was completely upended in mid-October. The Nittany Lions suffered a devastating blow when starting quarterback Drew Allar sustained a season-ending injury in a loss to Northwestern. The team has had to navigate its offense without its established leader, and according to reports from late October, there was “no update” on the status of backup quarterback Jaxon Smolik, creating further uncertainty at the game’s most critical position. With a 3-6 record, the same as their opponent, the Nittany Lions will rely heavily on their defense to keep them in this road contest.
Michigan State has little to brag about, entering the home stretch with an identical 3-6 record. The Spartans were mired in a three-game losing streak as of mid-October and have been battling their own significant injury concerns. Starting quarterback Aidan Chiles has been dealing with an injury that had him listed as questionable for a recent game, though he was ultimately cleared to play. His health remains a key storyline. Defensively, the Spartans have been banged up, particularly in the secondary. Starting nickelback Ade Willie has been ruled out in recent weeks, while key defensive players like safety Nikai Martinez and defensive tackle Grady Kelly have been listed as questionable, testing the depth of a struggling unit.
This game pits a Penn State team with a massive question mark at quarterback against a Michigan State squad that is at home but dealing with injuries to key players on both sides of the ball.
Prediction & Pick
This has all the makings of a gritty, low-scoring Big Ten rock fight. Penn State’s offense is severely compromised without Drew Allar, and it’s difficult to trust a team with a backup quarterback to win by more than a touchdown on the road, regardless of the opponent’s record.
Michigan State, despite its own struggles, is playing at home and has its starting quarterback, Aidan Chiles, available. While he may not be at 100 percent, his presence gives the Spartans’ offense a much higher ceiling than Penn State’s. The Spartans’ defense, though banged up, will be facing a Penn State offense that is likely to be conservative and one-dimensional.
Given the offensive limitations and quarterback questions for both teams, the 7.5-point spread feels overly generous to the visiting Nittany Lions. Michigan State should do enough to keep this a one-score game. Furthermore, with two struggling offenses, the under is the most compelling play on the board.
The Pick: Michigan State +7.5
Total: Under 49.5
Predicted Score: Penn State 20, Michigan State 17
Sources:
Penn State Nittany Lions Injuries 2025-2026 – Updated NCAAF …
Penn State injury updates at quarterback, defensive end and …
Injuries to any Person, and Reporting Incidents Involving Other than …
Drew Allar suffers season-ending injury as Penn State loses – ESPN
Penn State injury report: Two key starters return against FIU – Yahoo …
Penn State QB Drew Allar off injury report against Ohio State – ESPN
Reporting a Work-Related Illness or Injury | Human Resources
2025 Football Availability Reports
Penn State injury report: Lions will be without a top starter at Iowa …
Accident and Injury Reporting — Faculty and Staff — Penn State …