Game: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers Date & Time: Friday, October 11, 8:08 PM EST Location: American Family Fields, Milwaukee, WI
Moneyline: Cubs +114 | Brewers -139
Winner-Take-All: Cubs and Brewers Battle in Decisive NLDS Game 5
The season comes down to this. After a hard-fought series, the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers will face off in a decisive Game 5 of the National League Division Series. The winner advances to the NLCS, while the loser’s season comes to an abrupt end. For these NL Central rivals, the stakes have never been higher.
The series shifts back to Milwaukee, where the Brewers, favored at -139, will rely on home-field advantage and an unconventional pitching strategy to close out the series. The Cubs, entering as road underdogs at +114, will look to play spoiler and complete the upset.
Pitching Matchup: A Veteran Lefty vs. A Bullpen Game
Chicago Cubs: Drew Pomeranz (LHP)
The Cubs will hand the ball to veteran southpaw Drew Pomeranz in the biggest game of their season. In a do-or-die scenario like this, Pomeranz won’t be expected to go deep into the game. His job will be to navigate the potent top of the Brewers’ lineup a couple of times and hand the game over to a well-rested bullpen. Expect a very short leash from the Cubs’ dugout as they play matchups from the first sign of trouble.
Milwaukee Brewers: Trevor Megill (RHP)
Milwaukee will counter not with a traditional starter, but with hard-throwing righty Trevor Megill, who will serve as an “opener.” This signals a bullpen game for the Brewers, a high-risk, high-reward strategy for a Game 5. Reports from September indicated Megill was working his way back from an injury to be ready for the playoffs, so he is unlikely to be stretched out for more than an inning or two. Manager Pat Murphy will be managing this game one batter at a time, looking to create favorable matchups with a parade of relievers against the Cubs’ lineup.
Analysis & Prediction
This game will be a battle of nerves and strategy. For the Cubs, the path to victory is clear: get to the Brewers’ bullpen early. Facing an opener instead of an established ace could be a major advantage. If Chicago’s hitters can remain patient, work counts, and force Milwaukee to use its high-leverage arms earlier than planned, they can seize control of the game.
For the Brewers, success hinges on execution. Megill must deliver a clean opening frame to set the tone, and each subsequent reliever must do their job flawlessly. The pressure on a bullpen in a winner-take-all game is immense. The Brewers’ offense will need to strike early to provide a cushion and ease the tension on their pitching staff. With injuries impacting their rotation late in the season, including a scare with José Quintana in September, this bullpen-heavy approach has become a necessity.
This matchup is essentially a coin flip, but the value lies with the underdog. A bullpen game is a tightrope walk without a net, and in a high-pressure Game 5, a single mistake can unravel the entire plan. The Cubs’ offense has the talent to capitalize on any crack in the Brewers’ armor. While Milwaukee has the home crowd, the pressure is squarely on them as the favorite. Expect the Cubs to spoil the party in Milwaukee and punch their ticket to the NLCS.
Prediction: Chicago Cubs 5, Milwaukee Brewers 3
The Pick: Cubs (+114)
Sources:
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