Game Details:
- Matchup: Minnesota Lynx at Phoenix Mercury
- Date: Tuesday, September 26
- Time: 9:40 PM EST
- Venue: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ
- Betting Lines: Lynx -4, Over/Under 158.5
Clash in the Desert: Injury-Plagued Lynx Look to Hold Off Mercury
The Minnesota Lynx, despite a season of impressive performances, travel to Phoenix carrying the weight of significant injuries as they face the Mercury. Minnesota enters as a 4-point road favorite, but with key players sidelined, Phoenix and their star Kahleah Copper have a prime opportunity to defend their home court and pull off an upset. The low total of 158.5 suggests that oddsmakers anticipate a gritty, defensive battle, likely influenced by Minnesota’s depleted roster.
Minnesota Lynx Breakdown
The Lynx have established themselves as one of the WNBA’s top teams this season, but their depth will be severely tested. The biggest blow comes from the injury report, which confirms that guard DiJonai Carrington will miss the remainder of the postseason with a left midfoot sprain. Her absence is compounded by the loss of forward Rae Burrell, who is out with a leg injury.
Without two key contributors, the offensive and defensive burden falls even more heavily on the shoulders of superstar Napheesa Collier. Collier, who has dealt with minor injury concerns of her own this season, remains the engine of this team. For the Lynx to win and cover the spread on the road, Collier will need a dominant performance, and the team’s role players will have to step up to fill the void left by Carrington and Burrell.
Phoenix Mercury Breakdown
The Phoenix Mercury are looking to capitalize on the Lynx’s misfortune. Playing at home as a 4-point underdog, the path to victory is clear: lean on star scorer Kahleah Copper. Copper has been the focal point of the Mercury’s offense, and she’ll need to be at her best to out-duel a tough Lynx squad.
While Phoenix has had its own injury issues this season, including guard Megan McConnell missing time with a knee injury, they enter this matchup as the healthier team. This relative health is their biggest advantage. If the Mercury’s supporting cast can provide consistent scoring and defense around a big night from Copper, they are more than capable of keeping this game within the number or winning it outright.
Prediction and Betting Angles
The betting line tells a fascinating story. A -4 spread for a team with a record as strong as Minnesota’s is short, indicating that the injuries to Carrington and Burrell are heavily factored in. The Lynx are missing crucial scoring and perimeter defense, which is a tough deficit to overcome on the road. The Mercury, meanwhile, are in a perfect spoiler position at home with their primary star healthy. It’s hard to trust a depleted road team to win by more than two possessions.
The total of 158.5, with the under suggested, points directly to Minnesota’s offensive losses. Without two key rotation players, the Lynx’s high-powered offense is likely to slow down, resulting in a more half-court-oriented, grinding style of play. Expect both teams to lock in defensively in a crucial late-season game, making points a premium.
The Pick: Mercury +4
The Total: Under 158.5
Predicted Final Score: Lynx 78, Mercury 76
Sources:
Minnesota Lynx Injury Status – ESPN
Minnesota Lynx Injury Update
Golden State Valkyries vs Minnesota Lynx Injury Report for WNBA …
Minnesota Lynx Injury Status – ESPN (UK)
LA Sparks vs. Minnesota Lynx Injury Report and Predicted Lineups …
Minnesota Lynx Injury Report and Status 2025 – CBSSports.com
Napheesa Collier lands on Lynx injury report with knee concern …
Liberty vs. Lynx Injury Report for Tuesday, Aug. 19 | AP News
New York Liberty Vs Minnesota Lynx: Injury Report, Starting 5 …
Liberty vs. Lynx Injury Report for Sunday, Aug. 10 | AP News