When the 12-team College Football Playoff began, people were angry. Some teams were getting beaten badly, and the competition wasn’t exhilarating. But the Final Four of the CFP didn’t disappoint.
No team in the final four would’ve been in the College Football Playoff had it been run like last season. Then we got two down-to-the-wire finishes in the semifinals and got an exciting matchup for this year’s College Football Playoff Championship.
It’ll be the Notre Dame Fighting Irish against the Ohio State Buckeyes. Neither of these teams got a buy weak, and neither won a conference championship. But both got hot at the right time behind veteran transfer quarterbacks.
Ultimately, Notre Dame is a heavy underdog, getting 9.5 points in this game. The total is also at 45.5 points, with some books trending up a bit.
Here’s what the AI Model thinks of this championship game set for Monday.
Picks Summary
- Ohio State -9.5 (-110)
- Over 45.5 (-110)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Monday, January 20, 2025 – 07:30 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
The Crazy Turnarounds
After earning a major win on the road against Texas A&M, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish lost to Northern Illinois at home, 16-14. It was so embarrassing that quarterback Riley Leonard didn’t want to be seen on campus.
Since that game, Notre Dame has won every matchup in convincing fashion. While Notre Dame isn’t in a conference, the Fighting Irish still had wins against Louisville, Navy, Army, USC, and A&M in the regular season.
That loss to Northern Illinois would’ve kept them out of the CFP last season. But the expanded tournament allowed Notre Dame to sneak in after a terrific final 13 games.
The Fighting Irish came into the CFP and earned wins against Indiana, Georgia, and Penn State, proving just how good they can be. Now they’re in the Championship game.
Ohio State’s Season of Redemption
On the other hand, Ohio State lost to Oregon on the road earlier in the season. It was a major Big Ten matchup but poor clock management and some lackluster defense was the reason for the Buckeyes losing to Oregon. Ohio State cruised through the rest of the schedule until having to face Michigan in the final regular season game. The Buckeyes struggled with Michigan and ultimately lost their chance at playing for the Big Ten Championship.
But that might’ve helped open their eyes a bit. The Buckeyes didn’t play in the Big Ten Championship and just had to prepare for the College Football Playoff instead. That break was all it needed.
Ohio State ripped through Tennessee and Oregon and then escaped Texas with a massive defensive play as time ran out.
Both teams have had quite the journey. Thank the new format for it.
Breaking Down The Game
Notre Dame doesn’t have an edge in throwing the football. In fact, Riley Leonard only threw for 2,606 yards up to this point for Notre Dame and doesn’t even have 20 passing touchdowns. Still, he’s been a very good leader and is also a competent runner. It’s helped Notre Dame score 37 points per game this season.
That said, Ohio State has a terrific secondary and pass rush. There’s really no weaknesses for the Buckeyes. The only true weakness is that Ohio State scores so quickly that the defense must be on the field for much of the game.
While the Buckeyes held Texas to 14 points, Ohio State still allowed 17 to Tennessee and 21 to Oregon in the CFP. Yet, in both games, Ohio State scored 41+.
On the other hand, Notre Dame’s defense held Indiana to 17 and Georgia to 10. It just struggled a bit more against Penn State. The Nittany Lions gave up 204 rushing yards and allowed nearly five yards a rush to Penn State.
Advantage on the Ground
Ohio State can do the same against Notre Dame. The Buckeyes have two quality runners along with quarterback Will Howard.
Meanwhile, Ohio State held Texas to just two yards per rush in the most recent game and gave up only 7.3 yards per pass. It’s hard to imagine Notre Dame breaking out for more significant plays than Ohio State in this game.
The Picks
Let’s roll with Ohio State to win this game by at least ten points. It’s also likely Ohio State keeps Notre Dame in tact and defends at a high rate. Take the Under as well.
NCAAF Pick: Ohio State -9.5 (-110) at Bet365
NCAAF Pick: Over 45.5 (-110) at Bet365
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