It’s a Friday, so there’s not an insane amount of college basketball games. However, there are still a few intriguing matchups that we could bet on. I asked the AI Model for its favorite three bets, and here’s what you should consider at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- St. John’s (-292) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
- Cincinnati -3.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- UTEP -14.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
St. John’s Red Storm vs. Providence Friars
Friday, December 20, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Amica Mutal Pavilion
The AI Model believes St. John’s will escape Providence with a 75-68 win. The only true value is backing the Johnnies at -29,2 as they’re expected to win by seven. Don’t worry about spending the juice on this one!
Is Providence Good Enough Offensively?
The Providence Friars have shot an above-average rate from the field. They’ve hit 33.6% from deep and 52.2% from inside the arc. However, Providence has also turned the ball over 18.4% of the time and has hit only 67.8% from the foul line.
All of this is a bit concerning, knowing St. John’s has held opponents to a 46.3% effective field goal percentage with 21.5% of turnovers. The Red Storm should add a bunch of steals and force difficult shots against Providence in this game.
More Possessions For St. John’s!
St. John’s has turned the ball over just 16.7% of the time. It’s way less than Providence. Additionally, Providence has forced just 15% of turnovers. That’s not going to help the Friars keep possessions down in this game. Beyond that, St. John’s has added 40% of offensive rebounds. The Red Storm rank 10th in that category and should also dominate on the glass.
Furthermore, St. John’s has shot 56% from inside the arc, which is way more than Providence. The Red Storm are taking closer shots and scoring at a higher rate.
The Pick
Consider the Red Storm at -292 on the moneyline.
NCAAB Pick: St. John’s (-292) at Caesars Sportsbook
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Dayton Flyers
Friday, December 20, 2024 – 08:30 PM ET at Heritage Bank Center
The AI Model believes Cincinnati will earn a four-point win in a semi-home environment against Dayton. As a 3.5-point favorite, a four-point win would give Cincinnati the cover.
Can Cincinnati Take Care Of The Ball?
The Cincinnati Bearcats have only turned the ball over 14.2% of the time. Tonight, they’ll face a Dayton defense that has forced just 16.1% of turnovers.
So, the answer is yes. Cincinnati can take care of the ball, allowing them more shots. That said, Cincinnati has shot 37.9% from three and 57.8% from inside the arc. The Bearcats have struggled from the foul line but still rank 20th in effective field goal percentage.
The foul shooting should get better over time.
Dayton’s Inability On The Offensive Glass
The Dayton Flyers also have one of the better offenses in college basketball. The issue will be getting offensive rebounds off misses. Dayton has earned only 29.5% of offensive rebounds per game this season. While the Flyers haven’t had to worry much, thanks to their hot shooting, Cincinnati ranks 10th in defensive efficiency.
It’s way more likely the Flyers miss shots in tonight’s game. Ultimately, Dayton won’t be able to add second chances, which will hurt the Flyers in the long run.
The Pick
We’re rolling with Cincinnati at -3.5.
NCAAB Pick: Cincinnati -3.5 (-110) at Bet365
Jackson State Tigers vs. UTEP Miners
Friday, December 20, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Don Haskins Center
The AI Model thinks UTEP will knock off a winless Jackson State squad by 15 points. You can find UTEP at -14.5.
Jackson State’s Offense Is Pathetic
The Jackson State Tigers have shot just 30.2% from deep and 39.6% from inside the arc. They are 0-10, and for good reason.
They’ve turned the ball over 21.9% of the time, which is significant since UTEP has earned 26.6% of turnovers on defense. UTEP is one of the best at forcing turnovers in the nation.
That should help get stops for the Miners.
UTEP Can Rain It From Downtown
The UTEP Miners have shot 38.7% from deep this season. That should continue with a matchup against Jackson State tonight.
Jackson State has allowed teams to shoot 41.9% from downtown. So, while UTEP is selective from three, they’ll get a lot of really good looks from the floor. UTEP should capitalize.
The Pick
Grab UTEP at -14.5. Jackson State stinks.
NCAAB Pick: UTEP -14.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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