Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NCAAF odds for the upcoming bowl games. Three, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina, Pittsburgh vs. Toledo, and Rutgers vs. Kansas State.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in Coastal Carolina, UTSA-Coastal Carolina “over,” Toledo, and Kansas State. And don’t forget to check out our YouTube channel for more betting advice. For today, our expert covered the Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State and Rutgers vs. Kansas State games
Picks Summary
- Coastal Carolina +9 (-110) at Bet365
- UTSA/Coastal Carolina Over 55.5 (-110) at Bet365
- Toledo +7 (-110) at Bet365
- Kansas State -7 (-110) at Bet365
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
UTSA Roadrunners vs. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Monday, December 23, 2024 – 11:00 AM ET at Brooks Stadium
The Angle
This game takes place in Brooks Stadium, which is the home venue of Coastal Carolina’s football team. As such, this is essentially going to be a road game for UTSA.
This is a critical point because the Roadrunners are absolutely awful on the road. They are 0-6 SU in road games. On the road, they have even lost as a 9.5-point favorite. Coastal Carolina is a great play because UTSA can’t win on the road and is nevertheless favored by over a touchdown.
Coastal Carolina’s Quarterback Situation
With two quarterbacks in the transfer portal, Coastal Carolina will lean on Tad Hudson. Hudson is a very talented quarterback. He is a former four-star recruit who initially enrolled at North Carolina.
Scouting reports emphasize his qualities as a traditional pocket passer, such as his accuracy and decision-making.
Why The Total Is Also Worth Playing
Defense is the main problem behind UTSA’s road struggles.
The Roadrunners’ defense is bad to begin with, ranking 113th overall. But it is especially bad on the road. Whereas they allow “only” 26 points in home games, they are conceding 39.8 points per contest in their games away from home.
For Coastal Carolina, Hudson has the talent to help perpetuate UTSA’s defensive woes. Hudson has a strong supporting cast that features the team’s top running back Braydon Bennett, who averages a superb 6.5 yards per carry, and the team’s leading wide receiver, Jameson Tucker, who averages 17.4 yards per catch. UTSA is going to help the game go “over” the total.
Quarterback Owen McCown is highly efficient both as a thrower and a runner. McCown enters this game having thrown 24 touchdowns to nine interceptions and has run for as many as 75 yards on a single carry.
He gets to face a Coastal Carolina defense that is battered by departures, which include its top cornerback.
Takeaway
Coastal Carolina must be a play because the Roadrunners are an auto-fade on the road.
The “over” is also worth investing in because of how bad the Roadrunners’ defense is and because of how strong the outlook is for their dual-threat quarterback. This game will easily see more than 60 points.
NCAAF Pick: Coastal Carolina +9 (-110) at Bet365
NCAAF Pick: UTSA/Coastal Carolina Over 55.5 (-110) at Bet365
Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Toledo Rockets
Thursday, December 26, 2024 – 02:00 PM ET at Ford Field
Respect the MAC
As a conference, the MAC tends to be looked down upon. But non-conference play this year has delegitimized such derision.
We saw, for example, Bowling Green play CFP team Penn State very tough, losing by seven at Penn State. Moreover, we saw Northern Illinois upset CFP team Notre Dame in the latter’s venue. Coming to the topic, we also saw Toledo demolish Mississippi State, on the road, 41-17.
Pittsburgh’s Exploitable Pass Defense
The Panthers will fail to cover the spread in part because their pass defense is terrible. It ranks 117th.
A pass-heavy team matches up well against them. Toledo ranks in the upper half in pass-play percentage. More so than almost every other MAC team, the Rockets have the personnel to exploit Pittsburgh’s weakness on defense.
Quarterback Tucker Gleason is big, strong and tough to bring down in the pocket or as a ball-carrier. When he passes, he displays great accuracy. Overall, he ranked third in the MAC in passing yards per game, in addition to being an effective ball-carrier.
Pittsburgh’s Losing Streak
Pittsburgh’s top quarterback and running back are both banged-up. Desmond Reid should play — although Toledo has a statistically better-than-average run defense — but quarterback Eli Holstein’s ability to play is much more in question.
Even when both players were healthy, though, Pittsburgh scored all of 19 points against Virginia’s 96th-ranked scoring defense, as part of its ongoing horrendous losing streak.
The Panthers enter this game with purely negative momentum. They have lost five straight games, including at home to Virginia, by 26 points at Louisville, and by 11 at Boston College.
Takeaway
Pittsburgh can’t win games and is nevertheless heavily favored in this matchup. Toledo has the personnel to perpetuate Pittsburgh’s impotence.
NCAAF Pick: Toledo +7 (-110) at Bet365
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Kansas State Wildcats
Thursday, December 26, 2024 – 05:30 PM ET at Chase Field
Rutgers’ Coaching Problem
Rutgers will be without a defensive coordinator in this game. This is a big deal because Joe Harasymiak called the plays for Rutgers’ defense and oversaw its preparation for its upcoming opponents.
The Scarlet Knights will be unprepared on defense to contain what they will encounter in Kansas State’s offense.
Kansas State’s Dual-Threat Quarterback
Even when Rutgers did have his defensive coordinator, the Scarlet Knights struggled to handle mobile quarterbacks. When they recently gave up 38 points at home to Illinois, for example, Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer operated as his team’s leading rusher by running for 74 yards on 6.7 YPC.
Kansas State averages just over 28 points per game and is primed to beat this scoring average in what will be a favorable matchup and a uniquely positive situation.
Rutgers Will Fail to Keep Pace
The Scarlet Knights lack a good quarterback. Athan Kaliakmanis’ passer rating was 123.9 this season. Yet Rutgers will also fail to run the ball effectively, because Kansas State ranks 26th in run defense.
Rutgers’ worst offensive performances, such as when it scored seven points against Nebraska, have come against teams that rank high in run defense because it depends severely on its running game.
Takeaway
Led by its dual-threat quarterback, Kansas State’s offense will flourish against a uniquely vulnerable understaffed Rutgers defense. The Scarlet Knights lack the firepower to keep pace and match up poorly on offense against Kansas State’s strong run defense.
NCAAF Pick: Kansas State -7 (-110) at Bet365
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