This has been brewing for a while now. It’s almost a given that Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party will be swept out of power when Canada holds its next federal election – which has to happen by October 20, 2025. Trudeau has been Prime Minister for the past nine years, and just like everywhere else in the world, Canadians are clamoring for change.
Enter Pierre Poilievre. The populist leader of the Conservative Party of Canada is poised to become the next PM; as we go to press, a top-rated sportsbook like Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review) has the Conservatives priced at –900 to win the next election, with Trudeau and the Liberals trailing at +500 on the politics odds board.
These odds reflect what’s happening across the globe: incumbent parties are getting the boot. But Canada has its own brand of politics, and while Trudeau fatigue has been building for years, we can’t just assume that Poilievre has this one in the bag.
Canadian Federal Election Odds
| Political Party | Bet365 Odds |
|---|---|
| Conservatives | -900 |
| Liberal Party | +500 |
| New Democratic | +4000 |
| Bloc Quebecois | +8000 |
| Green Party | +50000 |
| People’s Party of Canada | +75000 |
How Does Canada’s Government Work?
Canada used to be part of the British Empire – and France’s, too, which is why the country is officially bilingual. But it was the British who won the wars and did most of the colonizing, so Canada’s parliamentary system follows the “Westminster model” they use in the UK. Technically, King Charles III is still Canada’s reigning monarch, but Canada became de facto independent in 1982, while Justin’s father Pierre was Prime Minster.
The Parliament buildings in the nation’s capital of Ottawa are where the federal government does business. Much like the United States, Canada is divided into smaller regional jurisdictions:
- 10 provinces stretched across the U.S. border.
- Three territories further north.
Each has its own government led by a premier, and each is in charge of things like health care and housing. Then there’s a third layer of government at the municipal level, with mayors and councillors and such.
At the federal level, Parliament is divided into three branches:
- The Crown
- The Senate
- The House of Commons
Unlike the U.S. government, Canada appoints its senators rather than electing them, so they usually go along with whatever legislation the House is cooking up – and the Crown rubber-stamps the few papers that still cross their desk.
How Do Canadian Elections Work?
The House consists of 338 Members of Parliament (MPs) representing districts from across the country, elected to a maximum term of four years. The MPs come from different parties; traditionally, the Liberals have been center-left, and the Conservatives center-right, but that tradition went out the window when Preston Manning’s Alberta-based Reform Party rose up and basically took over the Conservatives in 2003.
Even before that, there was a schism on the left when the New Democratic Party (+4000 to win the next election) was formed in 1961, also with Western Canadian roots in the Prairie provinces. Born as the political wing of the Canadian labour movement, today’s NDP (as led by Jagmeet Singh) is less populist and less socialist – there isn’t all that much anymore separating them from today’s Liberals.
There’s also the Bloc Quebecois (+8000), which was formed in 1991 to promote the sovereignty of Canada’s largely French-speaking province. And Canada has its own Green Party (+50000) as well, plus an even more right-wing populist group than the Conservatives known as the People’s Party of Canada (+75000).
The “first past the post” voting system is still used in Canada, but thanks to the Westminster model and all these new parties, minority governments are now the norm. The current Trudeau administration has staved off Poilievre’s Conservatives for this long only with the help of the NDP.
What Will Happen in 2025?
Trudeau can call the next election early if sees fit, and normally, the PM does exactly this when their party appears to be doing well – as Trudeau did in 2019 and 2021. He’s not doing so well right now. That’s politics; even Justin’s more popular father Pierre fell to Trudeau fatigue in 1979, although he roared right back to defeat Joe Clark’s minority Conservative government the following year.
Justin is definitely not Pierre, but at the same time, Poilievre is definitely not Clark. Unless the Liberals and NDP form a French-style “united front,” and there doesn’t seem to be much desire from either party to do so, the Conservatives will almost certainly dominate the election this time around.
The populist sentiments north of the border are congruent to what’s happening across the U.S., and pretty much everywhere else, so bet accordingly.
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.