It’s not the most exciting slate in the NBA. But we’ve got five games, and there’s value on the NBA odds board. Let’s ask the AI Model for the best players and earn some profit tonight.
Picks Summary
- Wizards +15.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Suns -3.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Mavericks -6.5 (-110) at Bet365
Washington Wizards vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Saturday, November 30, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum
The AI Model believes the Wizards will cover a 15.5-point spread against the Bucks. Milwaukee is expected to earn a 123-108 win over the Wizards. However, as a 15.5-point underdog, the Wizards would cover against the spread in a 15-point victory.
Can The Wizards Do Anything Right?
The Washington Wizards have scored the lowest points per 100 possessions in the NBA this season.
However, they’re going up against a Bucks defense that has only earned 12.6% of turnovers. If the Wizards limit turnovers, they’ll get up more shots. Sure, they’ll struggle from the field and won’t shoot at a high rate. But with enough shots, the Wizards can cover the spread, at least.
Can Milwaukee Take Advantage of the Offensive Glass?
The Bucks have scored an average of 114.3 points per 100 possessions. This is a good rate, but it won’t push them to a 16-point lead against any opponents.
In addition, the Bucks have earned just 22% of offensive rebounds. There’s a chance the Wizards get more shots up than the Bucks in this game. If that happens, it’s hard to imagine the Bucks will win by 16 or more.
Take the Wizards at +15.5, thanks to our AI Model.
NBA Pick: Wizards +15.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns
Saturday, November 30, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Footprint Center
Our AI Model likes the Suns to earn a five-point win over the Warriors. However, Phoenix is just a 3.5-point favorite at Caesars. According to our model, the Suns have value in this game.
Phoenix Dominates The Glass!
The Phoenix Suns have allowed just 24.6% of offensive rebounds on defense this season, which should help keep the Warriors from scoring at a high rate.
After all, the Warriors have shot a 54.4% effective field goal percentage, only 15th in the league. A poor shooting night against the Suns isn’t out of the question. But the best part is that the Warriors won’t earn many offensive rebounds and second chances.
Phoenix’s Offense Is Only Getting Better
The Phoenix Suns score a little more per 100 possessions than the Warriors. But with Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal back in the lineup after injuries, the Suns are already starting to improve the offense drastically.
That’ll be key against the Warriors. Golden State has played good defense up to this point. However, the fouls are still somewhat high.
If the Suns can shoot at a higher rate and get to the foul line at an above-average rate, they’ll escape and win. I’m on the Suns at -3.5.
NBA Pick: Suns -3.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz
Saturday, November 30, 2024 – 09:30 PM ET at Delta Center
The AI Model likes the Mavericks to add a 120-113 win over the Jazz tonight. At Bet365, you can find the Mavericks at -6.5. That would work with a seven-point victory.
Dallas Is Fine Without Doncic
The Dallas Mavericks have won four of their last five games, mainly without Luka Doncic, battling a wrist injury.
It’s unlikely he’ll play tonight. But the Mavericks are still playing very well without him. The offense has added 118.4 points per 100 possessions and has shot a 56.2% effective field goal percentage. Beyond that, Dallas has turned the ball over 12.9% of the time and earned 26.9% of offensive rebounds.
This offense should be able to score well against a Utah defense that ranks 29th in the NBA in points per 100 possessions.
Utah Will Need A Lot Of Free Throws
The only way for the Jazz to stay in this game is by making a lot of free throws. Dallas fouls a lot, but the Mavericks could be aggressive enough to add a lot of turnovers on defense.
Ultimately, the Jazz have shot an effective field goal percentage of 52.9%, and Dallas has allowed an effective field goal percentage of 52.2%. It’s likely the Jazz don’t shoot nearly as well as Dallas.
Let’s grab the Mavericks at -6.5.
NBA Pick: Mavericks -6.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
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