Thursday Night Football in Week 7 of the NFL season pits the Denver Broncos against the New Orleans Saints at the Caesars Superdome. New Orleans needs a win in the worst way in front of its home fans, having lost 4 in a row following a 2-0 start. Denver is going in the opposite direction, a winner in 3 of its last 4 games after starting 0-2. It’ll be 2 rookie QBs squaring off, but which will deliver? Let’s break down our Broncos vs Saints Same Game Parlay picks for TNF, which gets underway at 8:15 pm ET on Amazon Prime Video. You can also find out our NFL picks on the side and total for this matchup and EVERY game of the 2024 season.
Saints ML (+118)
Alvin Kamara to score a touchdown (-120)
Javonte Williams to record 60+ rushing yards (+165)
Broncos vs Saints Same Game Parlay odds: +946
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as New Orleans running back Alvin Kamara scoring a touchdown would obviously work well with a Saints win. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Denver running back Javonte Williams to rack up his fair share of rushing yards. But even if he does, there is no reason why the home team can’t get the job done. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
New Orleans Saints ML over Denver Broncos (+118)
New Orleans QB Derek Carr is expected to remain sidelined by an oblique injury, which means the starting job would once again go to Spencer Rattler. Obviously, that isn’t great news for the Saints, but it should help that Rattler already has 1 game under his belt – in which he completed 22 of 40 passes for 243 yards with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. No, it wasn’t great – and it probably won’t be against a stellar Denver defense, either.
Fortunately for New Orleans, not too many points will be required to beat this Denver outfit. As usual, the Broncos’ offense was mostly awful this past Sunday during a 23-16 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. Head coach Sean Payton’s squad gained a mere 63 total yards going into the 4th quarter. Bo Nix has been a decent game manager in the early stages of his career, but he is not going to seriously torch a vulnerable Saints defense. As an underdog, the home side has good value against a thoroughly unspectacular opponent.
Alvin Kamara to score a touchdown (-120)
With Carr out and Rattler still in, you have to think that Kamara will get a whole host of touches in an effort to take as much pressure as possible off the rookie quarterback. Kamara got only 13 carries against the Bucs, but that’s because the Saints were playing from behind almost the entire time aside from a few minutes during the second and third quarters (it’s also worth noting that he made 5 receptions on 8 targets). The Tennessee product figures to get more work against Denver, including in the red zone. Kamara has already scored 7 touchdowns in 2024 (6 rushing, 1 receiving). Only the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs have kept him out of the end zone.
Javonte Williams to record 60+ rushing yards (+165)
The Saints’ defense stinks in general, but it is especially hopeless against the run. Head coach Dennis Allen’s team is allowing 5.2 yards per rush – only the New York Giants and Buffalo Bills are worse. New Orleans is surrendering 133.7 rushing yards per game, so Williams has to like his chances of doing some damage on Thursday. The former North Carolina standout is the undisputed RB1 in Denver, with 59 carries to Jaleel McLaughlin’s 36. Although Williams has not yet done a ton with those carries, he at least gained 77 and 61 yards in 2 of the last 3 contests. There is no reason why he can’t victimize the Saints for at least 60.