We’re headed to Game 3 of the NLCS between the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers took care of business in Game 1, but the Mets stormed back in Game 2. Now they’ll head to Queens, New York, for three home games and home-field advantage.
If the Mets win their next three games at home, they won’t even have to head to Los Angeles. It’s probably wishful thinking. But after the Game 2 road win, the Mets currently have the advantage at the top-rated sportsbooks. However, our AI Model sees it a bit differently.
Picks Summary
- Mets ML (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
- Over 7.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets
Wednesday, October 16, 2024 – 08:08 PM ET at Citi Field
The AI Model has the Mets and Dodgers tying in Game 3, 3.8-3.8. Therefore, taking the home underdog is the play. The Mets are -105 and have more value than the Dodgers, who are -115.
Additionally, our model expects the total to reach 7.6. With Bet365 setting the total at 7.5, the Over is also a valuable wager for tonight’s game.
Walker Buehler’s Struggles Will Continue
The Los Angeles Dodgers will roll with Walker Buehler tonight. The right-hander has a 10.80 ERA in the postseason and hasn’t been all that good throughout the season. He’s pitched against 368 batters this year and has allowed a .218 ISO and wOBA of .374 with only 17.4% of strikeouts. Beyond that, Buehler has allowed 46.5% of hard contact and has given up 26% of line drives with only 8.3% of swinging strikes.
He’s struggled more against righties over the last 30 days and has given up a .200 ISO and wOBA of .407 to his last 28 righties. Furthermore, he’s allowed 65.2% of hard contact and has added just 10.7% of strikeouts against righties.
The Mets should have success hitting Buehler. After all, Francisco Lindor, Mark Vientos, Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso and Jesse Winker have all consistently hit a high ISO and wOBA against righties. That’s the majority of the New York lineup. The team has also hit nearly 25% of line drives against righties as a lineup over the last month and has contributed 51.8% of hard contact.
The Dodgers Will Also Hit
The Dodgers will face Luis Severino of the Mets. While Severino has looked good against righties, he’s allowed a .250 ISO and wOBA of .430 to his last 43 lefties.
Severino has struggled more against lefties throughout the season, allowing a .176 ISO and wOBA of .343 to 413 lefties this season. Ultimately, he must take on lefty sluggers like Shohei Ohtani and Max Muncy. Gavin Lux and Freddie Freeman have also shown off power, and Tommy Edman is another lefty who is expected to be in the lineup. After all, Severino will have to face more lefties than righties tonight. That won’t be good for him.
It’s more likely he pitches better at home behind the New York crowd. However, sometimes, there’s nothing you can do when facing Ohtani. For example, Ohtani has hit a .421 ISO and wOBA of .575 against his last 65 righties, while Muncy has delivered a .182 ISO and wOBA of .395 during the previous 30 days.
That said, Mookie Betts and Teoscar Hernandez are two righties who are consistent against righties. It’s just more likely Severino gets them out.
The Pick
Tonight’s Mets and Dodgers game should feature plenty of runs. Severino and Buehler have both struggled in areas that can be exploited.
The Mets have more power potential and are playing behind their home crowd. It’s more likely the Mets will pounce on the Dodgers bullpen late in the game. However, don’t be surprised when both starters give up multiple runs early and get forced out of the game without pitching five innings. In yesterday’s ALCS game, not even Gerrit Cole could get through five innings for the Yankees. So keep that in mind.
I’ll back the Mets and the Over 7.5 per our AI Model. When these hit, thank the AI Model. You can even parlay these two bets to get an even bigger payout.
MLB Pick: Mets ML (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook
MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (-110) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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