Two teams that suffered tough losses last Sunday get an opportunity to get back on track on Thursday Night Football. The Denver Broncos will travel to New Orleans to take on the Saints in this primetime matchup.
Before heading to our top-rated sportsbooks, let’s take a look at both of these teams to find a winning NFL pick.
NFL Pick
- Denver Broncos ML (+100) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Denver Broncos vs. New Orleans Saints
Thursday, October 17, 2024 – 08:15 PM ET at Caesars Superdome
Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos had a tough result on Sunday when they fell to the Los Angeles Chargers 23-16. The Broncos could not overcome their slow start and even with 16 4th quarter points, it was not enough for them to defeat their division rivals.
The Broncos knew that it was going to be a tough day when star cornerback Patrick Surtain suffered a concussion on the first defensive play of the game. Surtain is arguably the best cornerback in the league and, if he stays healthy, will be a candidate for Defensive Player of the Year.
With Surtain out, the Broncos defense took a massive hit, one which they were not able to overcome. Losing Surtain meant the Broncos could not blitz as often, which has been a staple of their defensive strategy so far this season. Surtain is likely to miss the matchup with the New Orleans Saints.
The Broncos are working on the development of rookie quarterback Bo Nix. The slow start by Nix doomed the Broncos against the Chargers. Although Nix finished with a respectable 216-yard passing while throwing for two touchdowns, he needed to be more effective early. The Broncos cannot afford another slow start from their young quarterback.
New Orleans Saints
After starting 2-0, the Saints have lost four games in a row.
Their most recent loss was also the toughest one to swallow. They fell 51-27 to their rival, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Saints are also starting a rookie quarterback, Spencer Rattler, after an injury to their number one QB Derek Carr. Rattler did fine in the loss, it was the defense that let them down. The Saints were built to be a team predicated on their defensive success, and to allow 51 points is simply unacceptable.
The Saints will try and turn things around quickly and they will face a team that is not nearly as polished as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Bucs QB Baker Mayfield is firing on all cylinders right now and shutting down Bo Nix will be a lot easier. The Saints were unable to stop the run as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers rushed for 277 yards against them.
No doubt Broncos coach Sean Payton will see this and will use this information in an attempt to establish his run game. The Saints will need to be better against the run if they’re going to have a chance to end this four game losing streak
Spencer Rattler was 22-40 with 243 yards and a touchdown in his debut. The Saints hope that Rattler can use this experience and improve going into this Thursday night showdown.
Key to the Game: Saints Rush Defense
The Saints will need to improve their run defense if they’re going to get back on track this week. Denver quarterback Bo Nix is still learning how to play at the pro level, and the Saints will need to put pressure on him by not allowing the Broncos to establish the run as the Buccaneers did.
If Nix is able to get a bunch of early down run success, that will put them in a great position to convert 3rd and shorts. If the Saints are able to bottle up the run and put Nix in plenty of 3rd and long positions, they will be in a great spot to bounce back.
The Saints have an excellent defense and I do believe that last week was an aberration. They get a chance to prove how good they are against the Denver team that does not have nearly the offensive acumen that they faced last week. However, Denver has the potential to run the ball well and the Broncos rushing attack could be effective this week.
The Pick
Sean Payton will be returning to the place where he won a Super Bowl with his new team. Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph will dial up a series of exotic blitzes to confuse rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler. The Broncos will be able to establish the run against the faltering Saints’ defense, which will make the play-calling for the Broncos much easier. The Broncos have wanted to be a run first team, and this week they will get an opportunity to run the style of offense that they want.
Although this is a tough pick, Payton knows how to get his team ready to play in New Orleans and the Broncos defense is much better than the Saints. I’ll take the team with more experience at the quarterback position and a better head coach. Give me the Denver Broncos.
NFL Pick: Denver Broncos ML (+100) at Bet365
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