The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to the octagon with a trip to Paris, France, this weekend, and fight fans should be delighted with the absolute banger of a fight card lined up!
Morgan Charriere, Gabriel Miranda, Bryan Battle and Kevin Jousset are involved in two main card bangers, and I’m seeing some serious betting value up for grabs.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into my favorite UFC Paris main card analysis and predictions.
Picks Summary
- Morgan Charriere ML & Under 2 ½ Rounds (-150)
- Bryan Battle Moneyline (-170)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
UFC Paris Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 28, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET
- Location: Accor Arena
- Scheduled Fights: 14
- Main Event: Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Renato Moicano (UFC Lightweight Bout)
Morgan Charriere vs. Gabriel Miranda
UFC Paris Featherweight Main Card Bout
Morgan Charriere
Former Cage Warriors featherweight champ and French favorite Morgan Charriere didn’t enter the UFC like most up-and-comers, as he’d already collected 27 fights worth of pro-MMA experience on the regional before making his debut.
Despite this, he’s still just 28 years old. Although he went from a knockout win in his promotional debut to a split-decision loss against Chepe Mariscal last time out, many disagree with the judge’s joice, and his skills are worthy and hold the potential to make an impact moving forward.
- Charriere Pro MMA Record: 19-10-1
- Charriere KOs: 11
- Charriere Submissions: 3
Gabriel Miranda
Brazilian fight veteran Gabriel Miranda has been duking it out in the cage since 2014, but his UFC debut wouldn’t arrive until 2022. Unfortunately, he was met with Saturday’s main event savage, Benoit Saint-Denis, and the Miranda name instantly became an afterthought.
Fortunately, the jiu-jitsu ace returned last September with a round one rear naked choke of Shane Young. This result, however, doesn’t remove his evident spouts of inactivity, and at 34, we shouldn’t expect him to make a run into the featherweight’s top rankings.
- Miranda Pro MMA Record: 17-6-0
- Miranda KOs: 1
- Miranda Submissions: 16
Charriere vs. Miranda: Fight Tape Analysis
Miranda presents a cliché case of Brazilian grappling experts; he’s got excellent submissions but doesn’t have the offensive wrestling credentials to get the fight where he needs it to be. Worse yet, he doesn’t mind playing guard, but we might not even get to that point in the fight.
Charriere has solid takedown defense, and from a skill set standpoint, he presents a diverse style and plenty of experience to back it up. His downfall can sometimes be prolonged calmness—he’s never in a rush—and sometimes a low volume output, which leads him to many close, split decision results.
What works for Charriere in this contest is punching power; he’s never far from cracking his opponents and putting their lights out, and when combined with a respectable takedown defense against a grappling-heavy opponent in his home country of France, this bout could quickly become a lamb to the slaughter situation for the aging BJJ expert.
UFC Paris Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with our top-rated sportsbooks places Charriere as the second biggest favorite on the Paris card, which, for some, is a concern, and rightfully so. This -700 is ridiculous, and although the Frenchman is unquestionably the side, his sometimes-lackadaisical tendency to win rounds isn’t worth the juice.
This is Charriere’s fight to lose but to boost his betting odds significantly, add the under 2.5 rounds to his moneyline. Lower-level opposition has always faltered to his punching power, and Miranda, as the one-dimensional fighter he is, doesn’t enjoy an onslaught when he doesn’t find a submission, with two of his previous three losses resulting in a KO/TKO defeat.
UFC Pick: Charriere & Under 2.5 Rounds (-150) [1.5u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Kevin Jousset vs. Bryan Battle
UFC Paris Welterweight Main Card Bout
Kevin Jousset
Mixed martial arts talent was once a rarity, but as evidenced by Saturday’s 14-fight schedule in Paris, the French are displaying more prosperous talent than ever. One of whom is Kevin Jousset, a 31-year-old striker who booked his position on the UFC welterweight roster after becoming the HEX champion at 170 lbs.
As a City Kickboxing product, Jousset’s name is attached with expectancy. He’s lived up to the hype thus far, banking back-to-back wins last year, but as the competition level rises, is he truly capable of following in the footsteps of teammates like Dan Hooker, Israel Adesanya, Kai-Kara France, and Carlos Ulberg?
- Jousset Pro MMA Record: 10-2
- Jousset KOs: 7
- Jousett Submissions: 5
Bryan Battle
Battle by name, battle by nature. It’s the perfect surname for ‘The Butcher,’ who, in a short but sweet 12-fight professional career, has turned up to the octagon to go to war every time.
In modern-day MMA, it’s rare for Ultimate Fighter winners to go on and become serious competitors, as Dana White’s Contender series has taken its place. However, Battle is the outlier, and since his promotional debut in 2022, he’s racked up a 5-1-1 record, including two recent stoppage victories within the first two rounds.
- Battle Pro MMA Record: 10-2
- Battle KOs: 4
- Battle Submissions: 5
Jousset vs. Battle: Fight Tape Analysis
He’s a City Kickboxing fighter, so, of course, Jousset loves to strike, and he does it pretty damn well. From a punishing jab game to a fight-ending check hook, he presents a fun style in the octagon that’s well-educated, relaxed and always holding the potential to take the simple path to victory without the need to engage in a firefight.
Then we have Bryan Battle, whose consistent evolution has been a delight to watch. He’s mentally robust and delivers a high output on the feet, which is also paired with incredible durability, which has never seen him suffer a knockout. Perhaps most notably, Battle won’t crumble under adversity, with an ability to adapt and turn fights from losing ones into his favor.
Jousset’s calm approach to fighting is positive in certain aspects, but sometimes, he’s too relaxed for his own good. He doesn’t present the greatest footwork or head movement, and it raises a few red flags against a well-disciplined, speedier Battle. More worryingly for the Frenchman, he doesn’t possess a grappling upside, whereas Battle is live to test this area where he’s previously shined in top control positions.
UFC Paris Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds place Bryan Battle as the betting favorite, but a moderate -170 price tag isn’t terrible for the fighter presenting more UFC experience and a more diverse set of skills.
Speed kills, and the fast-twitch reactions of Battle will reign supreme in a fight that will likely be a standup war for the most part. But even then, Battle has some naughty BJJ and undoubtedly owns the grappling upside. It’s a no-brainer pick for me, and fortunately, the odds are playable.
UFC Pick: Battle ML (-170) [1.7 returns 1u profit] at Bet365
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