Sunday is the last day of the Olympics, so let’s end on a high note! The sportsbooks have released their odds for a great collection of women’s basketball and handball.
I am specifically interested in France vs. USA, which is the women’s gold medal match in basketball, in Spain vs. Slovenia, which is the handball bronze medal match, and in Germany vs. Denmark, which is the handball gold medal match.
Basketball Pick
- USA -15.5 (-110)
Handball Picks
- Spain -1.5 (+105)
- Denmark -3.5 (-106)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
France vs. USA (Women’s Basketball)
Sunday, August 11, 2024 – 09:30 AM ET at Bercy Arena
France’s Win Over Belgium
France enters the gold medal match after triumphing in the semifinals against Belgium. In that game, France tellingly shot 22.6 from behind the arc, which is a terrible percentage. However, the French also attempted 32 free throws and 77 field goals.
For comparison’s sake, Belgium attempted three fewer free throws and an astounding 25 fewer field goals.
This statistical comparison is representative of tendencies that France has displayed throughout the Olympics, as you can see even in France’s loss against Australia.
What This Means
The takeaway from evaluating France’s performances in these Olympics is that the French want to be strong inside.
They will not be able to rely on three-point shooting – especially not against the Americans’ top-level collection of perimeter defenders.
Instead, they want to score inside with their many centers. They want to crash the glass in order to collect second-chances. They’ll try to be stronger inside also on the glass. On defense, they’ll look to block a lot of shots.
You Can’t Bully The Americans
In basketball in general, the three-point shot is known as the great leveler. Even weaker teams will occasionally threaten a stronger team by getting unusually hot from deep. But the French are going to have to thrive inside if they want to compete with the Americans.
But the Americans are too dominant inside. They have multiple Defensive Player of the Year winners, including two centers of their own, Brittney Griner and A’ja Wilson.
With women like these, they are physically very strong. Their physical talent makes them impregnable against any team that tries to find an advantage inside.
Takeaway
Whereas the French will struggle from deep, the Americans will have the world’s best three-point shooters, such as Sabrina Ionescu, to complement their inside prowess.
The Americans are simply too dominant on both offense and defense. They’ll also face a French side that, in contrast to them, had to claw and fight in Friday’s recent semifinals.
Matchups and energy will favor the Americans decidedly, as they look to win another game by 20+ points.
Basketball Pick: USA -15.5 (-110) at Bet365
Slovenia vs. Spain (Handball)
Sunday, August 11, 2024 – 03:00 AM ET at Pierre Mauroy Stadium
Spain’s Dominance over Slovenia
Spain deserves an automatic investment in this game because of its history against Slovenia.
These two teams last played in the group stage, with Spain emerging as the victor with a score of 25-22.
Spain normally scores more points, but its offense was unusually off for a long time. The Spaniards were abnormally inefficient and unproductive in attack.
However, they scored 17 second-half goals, as they dominated when it really counted.
This ability to beat Slovenia is reflective of their recent history. Spain has beaten Slovenia in three straight matches, with the previous two wins coming by ten and five point margins, respectively.
Handball Pick: Spain -1.5 (+105) at Bet365
Denmark vs. Germany (Handball)
Sunday, August 11, 2024 – 07:30 AM ET at Pierre Mauroy Stadium
How Much Will Denmark Win By?
The Danes are three-time world champs and, if we cast aside a France team that proved to be no match for Denmark, the favorite to win gold.
Denmark is clearly the best team, the question is really how much it will win by.
Germany backers will point to the fact that Denmark has won the last two matches by a single point.
If you look at all of the handball results, you’ll see, though, how much variety characterizes final score results. It is, statistically speaking, extremely unlikely that Denmark will win a third straight match by a single point.
Therefore, Denmark will win on Sunday by more than a point.
Head-to-Head
Denmark has won three straight matches against Germany, with the most recent one coming by three points. However, the three-point win took place on German soil. It took Germany playing at home for them to stay within four points of Denmark.
Denmark’s other two wins over the Germans came by seven and eight points, respectively.
Tactical Superiority
The Germans, at home, were also allowed to play rather physically on defense. But Denmark is simply too strong in attack, being able to bring guys forward but also go back on defense afterward.
Denmark has too much firepower and is simply too good overall for Germany to remain competitive outside of German soil.
Handball Pick: Denmark -3.5 (-106) at Bet365
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