Maybe the 2024 UFL season will not boil down to a rematch of the Birmingham Stallions and St. Louis Battlehawks in the title game. Both teams lost last week, and the Michigan Panthers and San Antonio Brahmas are going to have a shot against them this week to close the regular season, and they’ll see them again next week in the semifinals of the playoffs.
Throw in some injured quarterbacks and knowing your opponent next week is the same as this week, and we could have some funky results in Week 10 to finish the regular season.
There are also 2 games on Sunday between all the teams not going to the playoffs, so this is their finale.
Based on our UFL odds, we made our best bets for the Week 10 schedule below.
Picks Summary
- Panthers-Stallions Under 43.5 Points (-110)
- Brahmas-Battlehawks Under 42.5 Points (-110)
- Roughnecks -2 (-110)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Michigan Panthers vs. Birmingham Stallions
Saturday, June 01, 2024 – 02:00 PM ET at Protective Stadium
We are not going to see an undefeated season to wrap up a 3-peat for Birmingham. The 15-game winning streak is over after the team fell 18-9 to San Antonio last week. Now the Panthers (7-2) are the hottest team in the league with a 5-game winning streak. Can they upset the Stallions on the road and do it again a week later?
The Stallions are an 8-point home favorite with a total of 43.5 points at top-rated sportsbooks. Our focus is the total.
Should Michigan Bench Its Best Quarterback?
The Panthers have gone through their share of quarterbacks this year, but Bryce Perkins looks to be the best of the bunch. Like Adrian Martinez on the other side, he is a dual threat and led the team’s comeback win last week with his legs, producing 2 rushing touchdowns.
He’s also more of an effective passer than the other Michigan quarterbacks, so it would not make much sense to have him split time against a tough opponent like the Stallions, who can defend and score with the best of them.
However, when you know you have to beat Birmingham in the playoffs next week, should you really be going all out in this game and showing your best plays and risking injury to Perkins?
I would sit Perkins or only play a small package of plays with him to see how Birmingham reacts. Beating a great team is tough but trying to do it 2 weeks in a row in football is really tough. Michigan should be content with a laid-back approach to this one.
Week 2 Recap: Stallions 20, Panthers 13
When these teams played early in the season, it was only a 20-13 game. That was the lowest-scoring game of the season for the Stallions before last week’s 18-9 loss to the Brahmas, the No. 1 defense.
Still, this game is the No. 2 defense against the No. 3 defense, so both teams could struggle to score more than 20 points again.
We know the Stallions will want to improve after last week’s ugly loss, which was largely on offense. But the Panthers have only allowed more than 22 points once all season. This is a good defense that even Birmingham is no lock to light up.
The Pick
Again, it’s an interesting week as neither team necessarily needs to win this game and look impressive in the process. You still have to come back and beat the same team next week when the season truly is on the line.
That’s why it feels like a good spot for the under as both teams will go through the motions a bit, save better plays for next week and we can come back for the semifinals and talk about the Martinez vs. Perkins showdown. For now, let’s go with the under for your UFL picks.
UFL Pick: Under 43.5 (-110) at Bet365
San Antonio Brahmas vs. St. Louis Battlehawks
Saturday, June 01, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at The Dome at America’s Center
The Battlehawks (6-3) slipped up last week without star quarterback A.J. McCarron, who missed his 2nd-straight game and is day-to-day. The Brahmas (7-3) can convincingly win the XFL division here, but we know these teams will meet a week later in the semifinals regardless.
The Battlehawks are a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 42.5 points. Similar to the Birmingham game, we are looking at the total, and with a 2-week outlook for this matchup, we are getting twice.
Brahmas Still Not a Championship-Caliber Offense
The Brahmas are going to have a real shot to win the UFL championship if the defense continues to excel like this under coach Wade Phillips. They were able to slow down Birmingham’s Adrian Martinez last week, forcing him to throw a late interception in an 18-9 upset win that saw the Stallions punt on 6-of-9 drives.
However, the Brahmas lost quarterback Quinten Dormady to injury in the game. They could have to go back to Chase Garbers, who has a lot of experience but only averages 5.6 yards per pass attempt.
When Garbers played against St. Louis in Week 3’s 31-24 loss, he averaged just under 4.0 yards per pass – a game that has a lot to do with the team’s lofty average on pass defense for the season. Garbers just does not generate big plays as well as Dormady, who averages 7.0 yards per pass this season.
Rest McCarron?
The Battlehawks are in a real pickle here.
Do you rush McCarron back from injury to maybe win this game and host the same team next week in the playoffs? Do you just give him the most rest time possible and not care if you’re home or not for this game? It’s not like the NFL where the Battlehawks could have to win 3 straight road games just to get to the Super Bowl. We’re talking about one game before a title game.
That’s why it would make sense to not rush McCarron back, especially if you’re going to show your hand in a game you technically don’t need to win. Let him rest and let him be as close to 100% as possible for the game that truly counts.
The Battlehawks have done well enough at running the ball and playing defense this year to where maybe they can survive this game without him.
The Pick
With the injured quarterbacks and lower stakes for this game with the playoffs looming, we love the under 42.5 points. Just get through it without injuries and be ready for next week. No need to show your best plays or rush someone back who isn’t 100%.
Both teams should play this one carefully, and that should lead to a lower score.
UFL Pick: Under 42.5 (-110) at Bet365
Houston Roughnecks vs. Memphis Showboats
Sunday, June 02, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
The Houston Roughnecks and Memphis Showboats are both 1-8 and have the worst scoring differentials in the league this season. They’ll meet again after starting the season against each other, which is still Memphis’ only win.
The Roughnecks are a 2-point road favorite with a total of 44.5 points. We are looking at the spread.
Week 1 Recap: Showboats 18, Roughnecks 12
Little did we know just how bad these teams would be this season when they met back in Week 1. The quarterbacks were different with Case Cookus (Memphis) and Jarrett Guarantano (Houston) getting the starts that day. Cookus proved to be a nightmare, though it’s not like the Showboats have done much better at the position since.
The Roughnecks have gotten some better play out of Reid Sinnett, but last week he was replaced by Nolan Henderson, who threw for 150 yards and 2 touchdowns in a close loss against Michigan.
However, the lack of consistency at quarterback from these teams makes it hard to say Week 1 is a stylistic difference that should carry over again to Week 10. Neither team played well in that opener, which was filled with 22 penalties and 5 turnovers.
Memphis Is the Worst Team
Let’s make no mistake about it: Memphis is the worst team in the UFL.
The Showboats have been outscored by 109 points in just 9 games this season. At least Houston’s differential is only minus-68. The Roughnecks have held tough the last 3 weeks with San Antonio (lost 15-12), Birmingham (lost 35-28) and Michigan (26-22) – that’s 3 losses by 14 points to 3 playoff teams.
Meanwhile, Memphis has lost 6-of-7 games by at least 15 points since Week 4.
The Houston offense is indeed rough, but no one is worse than Memphis, which ranks last in yards per pass (5.1) and yards per run (3.7). However, the difference should also be on defense. The Showboats allow 358.9 yards per game, which is 75.5 more yards per game than Houston, which is nothing special on defense this year.
The Showboats allow 30.9 points per game – no other team allows more than 24.3 points per game in the UFL.
The Pick
Getting swept by Memphis to start and end the season is a good way for Houston to clean house in the offseason. Still, we won’t pick that to happen. Instead, the Roughnecks avenge their Week 1 loss, which is the only thing stopping Memphis from having a 0-10 season as the worst offense and defense in the UFL.
UFL Pick: Roughnecks -2 (-110) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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