The Minnesota Timberwolves avoided a sweep in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals. Now they’ll head back home in an attempt to make the series a bit more interesting. If the Timberwolves are able to add a win on Thursday, Minnesota would push the series to 3-2 and head to Game 6. If Dallas wins, the series will be finished, and the NBA Finals will have its two participants.
With so much on the line, we looked at our AI Model for a best bet in Game 5 before cashing it in at top-rated sportsbooks.
NBA Pick
- Under 209.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Thursday, May 30, 2024 – 08:30 PM ET at Target Center
According to our AI Model, the Timberwolves will win this game, 106-102. However, Dallas is a 4.5-point underdog and would cover in this scenario. Still, the Timberwolves would win the moneyline wager and ultimately push the series to at least six games.
While it would be fun to pick the outright winner or win against the spread, there’s more value in the total. Bet365 is carrying a 209.5 total, but our AI Model predicts we’ll only get 208 points. Therefore, the Under has the most value in Game 5.
Minnesota’s Defense Came Alive In Game 4!
The Minnesota Timberwolves finally provided above-average defense in the series. It took until Game 4, but the Timberwolves held the Mavericks to just 105.4 points per 100 possessions and added 15.2% of turnovers while giving up only a 50.6% effective field goal percentage.
In addition, the Timberwolves limited the Mavericks at the foul line much better than in Game 3 and gave up only 26.5% of offensive rebounds.
In the previous three games of the series, the Timberwolves allowed at least 114.9 points per 100 possessions and were below average defensively. This was the first time Minnesota buckled down on defense, and they won the game.
Who would’ve thought?
Meanwhile, the Timberwolves shot 52.7% from the field and only made 64% of their foul shots. Still, Minnesota saw the foul line more and beat the Mavericks on the glass. The Timberwolves also had success around the paint, scoring 46 of their 105 points in that area.
Anthony Edwards led the way with 29 points, 10 rebounds and 9 assists after shooting 11-for-25 from the field. He was an assist away from a triple-double but also had five fouls.
On the other hand, Karl-Anthony Towns added 25 points. While he fouled out, he shot 4-for-5 from three and looked much better from the floor than he had in the first three games of the series. The Timberwolves need Edwards and Towns to stay hot for a chance at winning in Game 5.
What Happened, Dallas?
The Mavericks were a game away from sweeping the Timberwolves heading into Game 4. However, Dallas made it much harder on themselves now. Not only did the Mavericks lose in Game 4, but they’ll also have to travel back to the road for Game 5.
While Dallas already added two home wins against the Timberwolves during this postseason run, the Mavericks surely would’ve liked the extra rest leading up to the NBA Championship.
The Mavericks forced 16.1% of turnovers and gave up only 17.9% of offensive rebounds. However, they also allowed a 60.1% effective field goal percentage, which was the difference in this game.
Minnesota got to the foul line more and scored 112.9 points per 100 possessions. To be fair, the Timberwolves weren’t exactly terrific offensively. They just used some really good shooting to pull away.
The Pick
Ultimately, both teams shot an effective field goal percentage of above 50% in Game 4. However, both teams turned the ball over at least 15% of the time, and neither team added a super high rate of offensive rebounds.
The Timberwolves are typically inconsistent with getting to the foul line, and the Mavericks probably won’t see the foul shot rate they saw in Game 3 ever again in the playoffs.
Therefore, I’m with the AI Model. Let’s back the Under 209.5 for Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals.
NBA Pick: Under 209.5 (-110) at Bet365
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