As we approach the 2024 Republican National Convention, speculation swirls around who President Donald Trump will choose as his running mate in the upcoming 2024 US presidential election.
Top betting sites in countries where political betting is regulated, such as Canada and the UK, are taking bets on this pivotal decision, so let’s delve into the latest odds for the Republican vice presidential nomination to get a better idea of who might end up being Trump’s VP choice.
While much attention has been on Trump’s legal battles, behind the scenes, the former president has been assembling his potential cabinet and the big question remains: who will be his running mate?
2024 U.S.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
| 2024 Presidential Candidate | Betting Odds | Implied Win Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | +100 | 50% |
| Joe Biden | +110 | 47.62% |
| Michelle Obama | +1800 | 5.26% |
| Robert Kennedy Jr. | +2200 | 4.35% |
| Gavin Newsom | +5000 | 1.96% |
| Kamala Harris | +5000 | 1.96% |
What Happened to Kristi Noem?
Less than two months ago, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem led the pack with odds of +350, followed closely by Tim Scott at +450, Elise Stefanik at +800, and Tulsi Gabbard around +1000. However, recent weeks have seen a shakeup, with Noem’s odds plummeting due to controversies surrounding her upcoming autobiography. Revelations about shooting and killing her dog and other remarks have shifted the landscape.
Governor Noem’s odds have fallen to +3300 at SportsInteraction while the UK branch of Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review) has her priced at +4000, placing her in the same league as Trump’s adversaries like Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley. Reports from Trump’s camp indicate he finds the controversy unsettling, which has impacted her prospects.
| CANDIDATE | BET365 | SPORTSINTERACTION |
|---|---|---|
| Tim Scott | +400 | +450 |
| Doug Burgum | +550 | +700 |
| J.D. Vance | +600 | +600 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | +750 | +600 |
| Marco Rubio | +1000 | +1000 |
| Elise Stefanik | +1100 | +1000 |
| Ben Carson | +1200 | +1200 |
At a recent fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago, Noem left early and wasn’t brought on stage by Trump. Instead, contenders like Doug Burgum, Tim Scott, J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, and Byron Donalds had their moment.
However, residency is another issue. Marco Rubio and Byron Donalds both live in Florida, raising constitutional concerns about their candidacy. Cheney’s move to Wyoming in 2000 sets a precedent, but Rubio’s current status as senior Senator adds a twist.
The New Favorites
Tim Scott is now the favored candidate at with odds between +400 and +450, but the emergence of unexpected contenders could sway Trump’s decision. Scott’s track record and loyal support make him attractive, but other factors may favor emerging candidates.
Doug Burgum and J.D. Vance have recently emerged as contenders as well. Burgum, Governor of North Dakota since 2016, aligns closely with Trump’s agenda and you can find him anywhere between +550 and +700. Vance, endorsed by Trump for an Ohio senatorial run, faces age concerns but boasts odds of +600 at both sites.
Vance’s endorsement and an upcoming fundraiser in Cincinnati, where he’s the “special guest,” add intrigue. Historical precedent, like Trump’s selection of Mike Pence in 2016, suggests that unexpected picks can succeed.
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.