The AI Model likes UConn to earn a seven-point win over Purdue in Monday’s National Championship game. That means UConn at -270 on the moneyline is a valuable play, along with the -6.5 spread for UConn.
The NCAAB computer picks also suggest that the total will stay Under.
With the Purdue Boilermakers ready to take on the UConn Huskies in the National Championship game, let’s go ahead and break down the odds at the top betting sites for the final that everyone wanted to see.
Picks Summary
- UConn -6.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Under 146 (-110) at Bet365
Purdue Boilermakers vs. UConn Huskies
Monday, April 08, 2024 – 09:20 PM ET at State Farm Stadium
Purdue vs. UConn Spread
The Huskies are the No. 1 offense in the nation this year. UConn shot 36% from three and 59.1% from inside the arc. The Huskies also turned the ball over just 14.5% of the time and added 36.5% of offensive rebounds.
Typically, UConn dominates the offensive glass. However, Purdue has held teams to 23.9% of offensive rebounds. The Huskies should still get some quality looks from the field against the Boilermakers. However, don’t expect UConn to dominate the offensive glass as they’ve done throughout the Tournament.
Ultimately, the Huskies have covered each spread in the NCAA Tournament since last year. They’ve been elite. But the Huskies also haven’t faced a team like Purdue in the NCAA Tournament yet.
That said, Purdue has still only held teams to 31.6% from three and 47.4% from inside the arc. These are good numbers but not elite numbers. Purdue’s elite numbers come from not fouling much and landing on the foul line at a high rate.
Few Turnovers
However, don’t expect either team to turn the ball over much. Neither defense is super aggressive, which is also why neither team allows their opponent to get to the foul line much. It’s just that Purdue knows how to get whistles around the rim with Zach Edey. Edey is usually bigger and stronger than the other team’s defense. He’ll be that against Donovan Clingan of the Huskies.
Still, Clingan is one of the best defenders in the nation and has a stronger NBA outlook than Edey. He can hold his own, which is why it’ll be an enticing matchup between the two big men.
With that, Purdue is usually money from three. The Boilermakers have shot 40.6% from downtown but don’t always shoot at a high rate of threes. They’d rather send it down low to Edey and score around the rim.
Just One Problem
The only problem? UConn is second in the nation in defense inside the arc, holding teams to 43% from inside the arc this season.
The good news is that neither team depends on the three. For example, Alabama couldn’t be UConn in the Final Four because they depended on the three, and eventually, they couldn’t make shots at 70% from three in the second half.
Computer Pick
Still Purdue should likely win the rebounding battle and get to the foul line more against the Huskies. It’s just still unlikely that those two areas will be enough to beat UConn, knowing the Huskies will shoot a better percentage from the field.
Let’s back the Huskies at -6.5. I’m with the AI Model here.
NCAAB Computer Pick: UConn -6.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Purdue vs. UConn Total
UConn uses 18.5 seconds per possession. Purdue uses 18 seconds.
There’s no fast tempo between these two teams. They can play in the half-court and set up a play to earn points.
There are a lot of high-IQ basketball players playing in this game. That’s legitimate, especially with both teams in the top five in assists to field goals made per game this year.
As I acknowledged earlier, it’s unlikely we’ll see a lot of turnovers. Purdue made some big mistakes against NC State, but that’s unlikely to happen against the Huskies. If we can get a bunch of half-court sets with a low amount of fouling and fewer fastbreak points, the Under seems to be the play here.
Computer Pick
The AI Model has the game finishing at 145. However, you can get 146 at Bet365. There’s some true value on the Under in this game.
UConn is one of the few teams that can get stops around the rim against Purdue. Meanwhile, the Boilermakers are one of the only teams that can limit UConn on the offensive glass at a solid rate.
Therefore, let’s ride with the AI Model and grab the Under 146. There’s going to be plenty of scoring, but it’s just going to be a slower game.
NCAAB Computer Pick: Under 146 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
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