The UFC returns to Vegas this Saturday, and we could witness a huge underdog pull through as a questionable UFC debutant, Valter Walker faces Lukasz Brzeski.
Elsewhere on the main card, French striking specialist Morgan Charriere will trade blows with a brawler in Jose Mariscal, and the betting line is tightly matched, allowing us to make a great profit.
Let’s stop wasting time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks on the UFC Vegas 90 main card.
Picks Summary
- Morgan Charriere ML (-125)
- Lukasz Brzeski ML (+225)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Morgan Charriere vs. Jose Mariscal
UFC Vegas 90 Featherweight Main Event Bout
Saturday, April 06, 2024 – 03:00 PM ET at UFC Apex
Morgan Charriere
Former Cage Warriors champion Morgan Charriere began his step up to the big stage of the UFC last September in emphatic fashion. The French striking enthusiast won his debut with some vicious body kicks, and he is just 28 years old; he’s a rising featherweight prospect to keep your eye on.
- Charriere Pro MMA Record: 19-9-0
- Charriere KOs: 11
- Charriere Submissions: 3
Jose Mariscal
Chepe Mariscal, most known for stopping Trevor Peek’s vicious KO streak with a unanimous victory in his promotional debut last year, is now 2-0 as a UFC competitor, and with 4 of his previous 5 bouts being won via KO/TKO, he’s undoubtedly a stiff challenge for the Frenchman this week.
- Mariscal Pro MMA Record: 15-6-0
- Mariscal KOs: 7
- Mariscal Submissions: 3
Charriere vs. Mariscal: Fight Tape Analysis
In my opinion, UFC matchmakers have lined up Charriere perfectly in this contest. As a fighter who finds most success in kickboxing battles, Mariscal is an opponent who will likely give him what he wants.
While both men should be expected to stand and trade in this bout, Charriere’s clean, technical and distance striking is the A-side. Conversely, Mariscal presents a brawling style and has thrived when biting on the mouthpiece and going to war, but it takes two to tango, and the French standout isn’t likely to stand in the pocket and make foolish moves.
UFC Vegas 90 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTraders’ top-rated sportsbooks believes Charriere is the rightful favorite, but this line is almost close to a pick’em.
With a tendency to stick and move with impressive footwork and a well-timed striking offense, I love this price on Charriere in this matchup. I cannot see how Mariscal can win a striking battle against an opponent that isn’t going to feed into his erratic style. He isn’t a strong enough grappler to cause problems on the mat, and ultimately, I envision the kickboxing exchanges heavily favoring the French fighter.
UFC Pick: Charriere ML -125 [1.25u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Lukasz Brzeski vs. Valter Walker
UFC Vegas 90 Heavyweight Main Card Bout
Saturday, April 06, 2024 – 03:00 PM ET at UFC Apex
Lukasz Brzeski
“Polish Power” hasn’t transitioned into the UFC octagon for Lukasz Brzeski thus far. Since joining the promotion from DWCS in 2022, he’s lost all three contests, including a recent round-one TKO stoppage loss against Waldo Cortes-Acosta.
Brzeski Pro MMA Record: 8-4-1
Brzeski KOs: 5
Brzeski Submissions: 2
Valter Walker
The brother of the UFC’s beloved Johnny Walker, Valter Walker, prepares for his promotional debut in Vegas this weekend, and he sits behind a seemingly impressive 11-0 unbeaten streak and seven wins inside the distance.
- Walker Pro MMA Record: 11-0-0
- Walker KOs: 6
- Walker Submissions: 1
Brzeski vs. Walker: Fight Tape Analysis
After studying Valter’s regional scene come-up, I’ve noticed that he’s done a great job of executing takedowns and beating the opposition into a pulp. However, the level of competition he’s faced is a huge concern, and while it feels like the UFC is laying him up for victory this weekend, the current line doesn’t match the Brazilian’s overall skill set.
Brzeski arguably won his UFC split decision loss to Martin Buday. He then faced one of the heavyweight division’s best wrestlers, Karl Williams, and still displayed an ability to fight for position and avoided a stoppage defeat.
In striking exchanges, Walker’s skills have a lot to be desired. He’s also displayed a questionable gas tank on more than one occasion. A padded record against a UFC losing streak is the only reason he’s such a big favorite this weekend, as this massive underdog spot is very live heading into Vegas this weekend.
UFC Vegas 90 Main Card Event Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds have placed Walker as a -275 favorite in some books. On principle alone, this line is a complete fade, not to mention the presented red flags.
Walker hasn’t fought many heavyweights who come close to his size, and the old, frail opponents he’s defeated thus far aren’t noteworthy. Sure, Brzeski is fortunate to be on the roster himself; however, watching him return to his feet against Williams could be a huge sign of what’s to come. Walker’s wrestling isn’t close to Williams, and in striking exchanges, the Polish native can thrive.
UFC Pick: Brzeski ML (+225) [2.25u returns 1u profit] at Bet365