The NFL’s Wild Card round could see some aerial displays in Dallas and Detroit this Sunday with some of the most prolific skill players in the league in action. The top quarterbacks in touchdown passes will meet in Jordan Love (32) and Dak Prescott (36), and Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff could be in a battle to 30 points or more on Sunday night.
But could the day begin with a majestic snow game in Buffalo? That sounds like a way for the Steelers to shrink the gap between Mason Rudolph and Josh Allen.
Remember to check out the player props section on OddsTrader, and we included the top sportsbooks to make these player props for Sunday’s Wild Card action.
Picks Summary
- Josh Allen (BUF) Passing & Rushing Yards Under 257.5 (-110) at Bet365
- Jayden Reed (GB) Receiving Yards Over 48.5 (-110) at Bet365
- Jake Ferguson (DAL) Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+160) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Matthew Stafford (LAR) Passing Yards Over 276.5 (-110) at Bet365
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) Receiving Yards Over 88.5 (-110) at Bet365
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, January 14, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Highmark Stadium
Josh Allen – Total Passing & Rushing Yards
This will be the 5th time Josh Allen has faced Mike Tomlin’s Steelers in his career. Allen is 3-1 but see if you can spot the split here:
- Allen vs. Steelers with T.J. Watt: 2-1 record, 56.3% complete, 5.4 yards per pass attempt, 215.7 passing yards per game.
- Allen vs. Steelers without T.J. Watt: 1-0 record, 64.5% complete, 13.7 yards per attempt, 424 passing yards (career high).
Watt (MCL) is out this week, so Allen is going to go nuclear like he did last year at home in Buffalo’s 38-3 win over the Steelers when Watt was out, right?
Not so fast. Allen had unprecedented success on the deep ball that day, hitting Gabe Davis for touchdowns of 98 and 62 yards. It sounds like Davis may not play due to injury this week. Stefon Diggs is still there and had a big game last week in Miami, but he was averaging 37 yards per game in the last half of the season before that.
The Real Concern
But the real concern here is the weather should the lake-effect snowstorm happen during the game and make this a tough field to play on as we have seen before with Buffalo. The coldness is not going to bother these teams, but a heavy amount of snow sure could.
There’s also the fact that the Bills have not been relying on Allen as much lately under new coordinator Joe Brady. Sure, Allen lit up the Dolphins last week, but he is 11-2 against Miami in his career. He owns that team. Pittsburgh had made him look mortal before last year’s game.
But even in Week 17, Allen only had 213 total yards against the Patriots at home in a game where he struggled. He had 252 total yards against the Chargers the week before. He threw for just 94 yards and rushed for 24 more yards (118 total yards) against the Cowboys in that blowout win where James Cook was the star of the game.
The Bills have not always leaned on Allen this year, and this could be a week for Cook if the weather ends up being as bad as advertised.
The Pick
The Steelers also could run the ball a lot and shrink the game, limiting Allen’s chances to put up yards. There have already been 4 home games this year where Allen did not pass for 180 yards, and even when adding his rushing contributions in those games, he still finished way under 257.5 total yards.
The Bills do not need a stellar Allen game to beat the Steelers. They just need one where he will limit the mistakes and not help the Steelers with turnovers. We’ll take his under in yards even with Watt out.
NFL Pick: Josh Allen Passing & Rushing Yards Under 257.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, January 14, 2024 – 04:30 PM ET at AT&T Stadium
Jayden Reed – Total Receiving Yards
Green Bay’s youth movement at wide receiver in the attempt to replace Davante Adams has led to the breakout year for 2nd-round rookie Jayden Reed. While most expected Christian Watson to be the No. 1 option after his successful rookie year, injuries and inconsistent play did him in.
Reed ended up making the most of the opportunity, and he leads the Packers in catches (64), receiving yards (793), and touchdowns (10). He is also an efficient target for Jordan Love as Reed has caught 68.1% of his targets this year, the highest among Green Bay wide receivers.
Peak Time
Reed is arguably peaking as we go into the playoffs. He had a season-high 89 yards and 2 touchdowns in Minnesota in Week 17. He quickly replaced that season high with 112 yards against the Bears in Week 18 to help Green Bay secure this playoff opportunity.
Overall, Reed has gone over 48.5 yards in 7-of-16 games played, and Love’s passing yardage has increased by about 55 yards per game in the 2nd half of the season.
The Pick
With a pick like this, you just hope the potential return of Watson does not take away from Reed’s chances. But with the way Love is spreading the ball around and the way Dak Prescott can drop 30 points in Dallas with ease, this should be a game where the Packers have to throw often and for a lot of yards to keep up.
We will trust their leading receiver this year to deliver over 48.5 yards.
NFL Pick: Jayden Reed Receiving Yards Over 48.5 (-110) at Bet365
Jake Ferguson – Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Helping Dak Prescott lead the league with 36 touchdown passes was tight end Jake Ferguson, who caught 5 scores and was the team’s 2nd-leading receiver behind CeeDee Lamb with 71 catches and 761 yards. He did a very good job of replacing the loss of Dalton Schultz, who joined the Texans in the offseason.
Ferguson had a 3-game streak with a touchdown catch in Weeks 8-10. But he only has 1 touchdown catch in his last 8 games, and that was in the shootout against Seattle in Week 13 when Prescott was fantastic and so was Geno Smith for Seattle.
There is a chance this game lives up to that kind of offensive proficiency. Lamb can’t score all the touchdowns, and Tony Pollard barely scores any of them this year for Dallas, so we do like the prospects of Ferguson ending his 5-game scoring drought and finding the end zone again.
The Pick
The Green Bay defense can also be susceptible to tight ends in the red zone. The Packers have allowed tight ends to catch 7 touchdowns this year. Only 5 defenses have allowed more such scores. In a game where Prescott should throw several touchdowns, we’ll take our chances with 1 of them going to Ferguson.
NFL Pick: Jake Ferguson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+160) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions
Sunday, January 14, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Ford Field
Matthew Stafford – Total Passing Yards
This game could be emotional for Matthew Stafford as it is his official return to Detroit where he played the first dozen years of his career. But he does already have the experience of facing the Lions in 2021 with the Rams in Los Angeles.
The Rams were a big 16.5-point favorite, but the Lions shut down the running game and Stafford had to beat them with his arm, throwing for 334 yards and 3 touchdowns in a 28-19 win.
Game Script
What if we get a similar game script here? The Lions are No. 2 against the run, the crowd will be fired up all night, and maybe the defense can contain Kyren Williams, who has been on a hot streak. That would force Stafford to get into a shootout and carry the team without a running game, something he is very used to doing at Ford Field.
But we could get to this position even with a good running game as this may be the best shootout of the playoffs given the talent these teams have at skill positions and the lack of great defenders on both sides.
The Pick
Stafford and Jared Goff will both be looking to prove a point and put on a show. It should be a fun, high-scoring game, and you can never discount Stafford leading a comeback win. We’ll take him to hit his over in yards as the Lions are a legitimate run defense that should not get destroyed by Williams like other recent opponents have.
NFL Pick: Matthew Stafford Passing Yards Over 276.5 (-110) at Bet365
Amon-Ra St. Brown – Total Receiving Yards
This really is a game with a lot of players looking to prove something. Not only does Jared Goff possibly feel snubbed in the Stafford trade and Pro Bowl selections this year, but Amon-Ra St. Brown might feel like he deserved the Pro Bowl over rookie Puka Nacua (or Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans).
St. Brown was excellent this year with career highs in catches (119), yards (1,515), and touchdowns (10). He is so consistent too, posting just 3 games with under 70 receiving yards.
Overall, St. Brown cleared 90 yards in 11-of-16 games and had 9 games with 100 yards. We are calling this an aerial show and shootout, so there should be plenty of opportunities for St. Brown to produce as the Lions look to keep up with that impressive Los Angeles offense that comes in rolling. But we know the Lions are prolific at home on offense as well.
The Pick
Another reason to like St. Brown is the receiver depth for the Lions. Tight end Sam LaPorta was the team’s 2nd-leading receiver this year and he may not play or will be limited after a knee injury last week against Minnesota. Kalif Raymond was also injured in that game, and he ranks 4th on the team with 489 receiving yards this year.
If half of the top 4 targets for Detroit aren’t 100% or available, then St. Brown might need to clear 100 yards out of necessity if the Lions are going to end this long drought with a playoff win.
NFL Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Over 88.5 (-110) at Bet365
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