Week 13 of the NFL season is upon us, and the action is beginning to heat up as we prepare to enter the home straight. Games matter a lot more now with potential playoff and draft implications on the line, and all of that is a recipe for some seriously entertaining football this weekend. Lucky for you, our experts have been crunching the numbers and doing their analysis, and they have come up with 3 NFL best bets for you to consider for Sunday’s action. Our NFL handicappers boast a 37-28 record with their 3-star best bets this season, which is good for nearly 15 units of profit! You can read our NFL picks for every single game this week, but for now, let’s dive into our Week 13 best bets.
Andrew Ortenberg: Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders Over 49.5 (-110)
I like the over in this game, as I’m not expecting much from either defense. For starters, Miami’s offense has the highest ceiling of any team in the league, and they’re getting to face a unit that has been getting torched so bad they had to fire their DC mid-season. The Commanders traded away both Chase Young and Montez Sweat at the trade deadline, completely neutralizing their one defensive strength which was in the trenches. Washington has given up at least 29 points in eight of their last 11 games, including to some offenses with nowhere near as much talent as Miami.
Nobody can slow down Tyreek Hill, and especially not this abysmal Commanders secondary. Tua Tagovailoa just averaged over 8 yards per attempt while the team scored 34 points in a win against an elite Jets defense that had Sauce Gardner matched up on Hill, so I think they’ll be just fine here. In five of the Dolphins’ past six wins they’ve scored at least 31+ points, so I also think this play correlates nicely with our Dolphins -9.5 spread bet.
Be sure to check out our full Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders predictions
The Betting Queen: Los Angeles Chargers -5 over New England Patriots (-110)
The Los Angeles Chargers will be traveling to Foxborough to face the New England Patriots on Sunday. The Chargers are coming off 3 straight losses and 2 of them were 1-possession games where they just could not finish. The 2-9 Patriots are coming into this matchup as losers of 4 straight games and they have failed to score 10 points in their last 2 games. After losing to the Giants there are serious question marks about this team. QB Mac Jones has been an interception machine, throwing 12 picks and the offense is averaging less than 14 points per game. Ever since Tom Brady left, the Patriots have not been the same, especially on offense. I expect their struggles to continue as they keep making mistakes and turnovers.
The Chargers had high expectations for this season but they have been beating themselves week-in and week-out. Their offense isn’t the problem as they average over 24 points per game and they should be moving the ball all game. The Patriots’ defense allows over 22 points per game and this is a game in which I see the Chargers putting up 30 points. The LA defense has been a problem all season but could get it together on Sunday. The Patriots have allowed 25 sacks already and thrown 14 total interceptions. Expect more New England mistakes to help the Chargers to cover the spread.
Be sure to check out our full LA Chargers vs New England Patriots predictions
Chris Farley: San Francisco 49ers -2.5 over Philadelphia Eagles (-115)
Almost as soon as the spread came out on this big NFC showdown, the number moved from San Francisco +1 to -1.5 within an hour. Now it sits at -3, for good reason. We could go over all the statistics you already know about these two elite teams, but that’s not what this handicap is about. Of course both teams are among the best not only in their conference, they’re each in the top-3 favorites to take home the Lombardi Trophy this season. The difference in Sunday’s matchup is that one team is due for massive negative regression. It helps that their opponent has big-time revenge on their mind, too.
The Philadelphia Eagles have been outgained by at least 98 yards per game in four straight wins. In short, their defense has been a problem. Meanwhile, Brock Purdy has been perfect in three wins since the 49ers’ bye week, leading his offense to 31 points per game against three good defenses (JAX, TB, SEA). San Francisco’s star left tackle and arguably the best offensive lineman in the NFL Trent Williams has been a difference-maker since he returned from injury several weeks back, and the offense is healthy all-around heading into Sunday.
Jalen Hurts has been impeccable. He’s the single-biggest-reason why Philly just keeps on winning, despite some of their lackluster play defensively, but the damn always breaks eventually. The Eagles have allowed 430 yards per game in the last four weeks, and San Francisco will undoubtedly have extra motivation after they lost to Philly last year in the NFC title game where they had no quarterback for three quarters. The Birds also have Dallas on deck in an NFC East showdown at AT&T Stadium the following week. This is an ideal confluence of factors for a team that, unlike the other squads Philly has faced, is too talented and too poised to drop the ball when given an opportunity.
Be sure to check out our full San Francisco 49ers vs Philadelphia Eagles predictions