The touchdowns this season just haven’t felt the same as they did in the past — partially because sportsbooks have really done a number on the odds and they will get away with it since it’s a big draw among casual bettors. Despite that, we are still able to find decent value at plus-odds — I refuse to give out negative odds on TD scorers.
Let’s look at my tiered touchdown scorer approach. The top tier can receive 0.5U, the middle tier 0.25U, and the bottom of the barrel 0.10U unless otherwise noted.
The Top Shelf
Bijan Robinson, ATL (+115)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Bijan Robinson has 1 TD on the year and it’s in the passing game, but that should change on Sunday against the Texans. They have allowed 7 rushing TDs on the season, 2 of which went to QBs. Robinson has seen his snaps increase week over week and will likely find paydirt at home.
Gus Edwards, BAL (+180)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Gus Edwards is coming off his highest snap count of the season and nearly saved Lamar Jackson’s life in pass protection last week against Cleveland. That is the type of stuff coaches look for and keeps you on the field, which explains his 69% of snaps (a season high). He has 1 TD on the season and faces a Steelers defense that’s more of a copper curtain than a steel one in 2023. They have allowed 3 TDs to opposing RBs and Edwards has 2 TDs against Pittsburgh in 3 career starts.
The Mid Shelf
Tutu Atwell, LAR (+220)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The weakness of this Eagles defense is easily their secondary and the 7 TDs they have given up to opposing WRs through 4 games. Tutu Atwell has 1 receiving TD on the season and I’d like to count one rushing score that was overturned on MNF as controversial. Cooper Kupp is looking like he will return in Week 5, but it only gives Sean McVay more opportunities to scheme Atwell open with all of the focus on Kupp and Puka Nacua. I would not be surprised to see Kupp throwing Atwell a TD pass in a moment of trickery this Sunday.
Dalton Kincaid, BUF (+300)
Line available on Bet365 Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid has yet to find the end zone, but that should change on Sunday in London. He’s had 4+ receptions in 3 of 4 games and fellow TE Dawson Knox could be limited. It helps that the Jaguars allow the 2nd-most targets per game to opposing TEs. It feels like this could be the breakout game for Kincaid.
Jerick McKinnon, KC (+310)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
We have to have at least one revenge play in this TD article per week. It’s the law. Jerick McKinnon fits the mold, but more so for his receiving. Patrick Mahomes should have his way with this Minnesota defense and McKinnon will peak his head in the red zone, as we have seen twice this season (2 TDs). It helps that this is his first career game against the Vikings and it’s in Minnesota.
The Bottom of the Barrel
Durham Smythe, MIA (+370)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Tight end Durham Smythe can get lost in the hype surrounding Miami’s offense, but he has played 85% of snaps in 3 of 4 games this season. Despite the time on the field, he’s yet to catch his first TD of the season and thus, finds his name at the bottom of the barrel.
Hayden Hurst, CAR (+450)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Hayden Hurst is 8th overall among TEs in red-zone receptions and faces a Lions defense that is giving up the most yards per game to opposing TEs. While yards don’t equate to touchdowns, at +450 I like the value.