The Philadelphia Phillies (32-34) and Arizona Diamondbacks (41-25) meet Tuesday for the 2nd game of a 4-game series. First pitch at Chase Field is slated for 9:40 p.m. ET.
Season series: Arizona leads 3-1
The Phillies dropped Monday’s series opener 9-8. That marked the 3rd time in these teams’ 4 meetings that a game ended within a single run. After posting a 1.67 ERA in a 6-0 stretch from June 3-9 Philadelphia has allowed 9 runs in 2 of its last 3 games.
Arizona has won 6 straight games while slashing a fine .316/.388/.517 (.905 OPS) along the way. Since May 28 the Diamondbacks are 12-2 with a plus-32 run differential.
Phillies at Diamondbacks projected starters
RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Zach Davies
Wheeler (4-4 3.91 ERA) makes his 14th start of the 2023 season. He has notched a 1.12 WHIP 2.0 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 through 76 IP.
- Has clocked a 5.18 ERA and 1.30 WHIP on the road
- Faced the Diamondbacks on May 22 in Philly: Loss 6 IP 4 R (3 ER) 8 H 1 BB 3 K
- Owns a 3.88 ERA over 5 starts vs. Arizona since 2019
Davies (1-1 4.68 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.44 WHIP 3.6 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 25 IP.
- Has looked solid with a 4.02 ERA in 3 starts since returning from an oblique injury that kept him on the shelf for about six weeks in April-May
- Facing a Philadelphia club that has given him trouble in the past (current batters have an .851 aggregate OPS)
Phillies at Diamondbacks odds
- Moneyline: Phillies -132 (bet $132 to win $100) | Diamondbacks +112 (bet $100 to win $112)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+118) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-142)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -102 | U: -120)
Phillies at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4 Diamondbacks 3
Moneyline
Arizona has overplayed its runs vs. runs allowed profile (5.23 runs per game (RPG) 4.61 RPG allowed) and has benefited from an easier-than-average schedule so far. The Diamondbacks own a .331 batting average on high-leverage balls in play figure and a favorable BABIP in inning leadoff situations. Peg the Arizona defense as due some regression.
Wheeler — owner of a 2.98 ERA over the last 4 seasons — makes this start on 4 days’ rest which has netted a 1.67 ERA across 4 such efforts this season. He’s had some missteps this season but a .375 batting average on high-leverage balls in play has ballooned his ERA a tad unfairly.
The price is right to leverage the visiting nine BACK PHILADELPHIA (-132).
Run line/Against the spread
Likable pitching all the way around with these starters and bullpens. In a low-scoring environment PASS on getting the visitors by with a cushion.
Over/Under
The Under has a lean: good pitching and an Arizona offense due for some regression. But the price has to be right PASS unless you can get a -110 on the Under 9.