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The 2022 offseason was really nice for the bank accounts of several wide receivers across the NFL.
When we look back on the trends of the league, it’s going to be known as the year when wide receiver officially became a premium position.
To wit, in 2021, there were three receivers who were making $20 million or more in average annual value: DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen and Amari Cooper. In 2022, there were 14 receivers who crossed that threshold.
Tyreek Hill ($30 million) and Davante Adams ($28 million) set the benchmark in terms of average annual value, while Cooper Kupp leads the way in guarantees with $75 million of his three-year, $80.1 million extension guaranteed.
This offseason has been relatively quiet at the position. The free-agent class was thin and we didn’t have any blockbuster trades like the ones that sent Hill to Miami or A.J. Brown to Philly.
Still, there’s a domino in Justin Jefferson that could again send the market soaring. He’s now eligible for a contract extension in Minnesota, and the numbers could be huge.
Here’s a look at him and other top receivers who could be getting paid very well very soon.
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
We’re going to start here because, as noted in the intro, Jefferson is about to set the whole market.
The tricky part is figuring out what that means from a numbers standpoint. Jeremy Fowler of ESPN reported on SportsCenter that the Vikings intend to “prioritize” a Jefferson extension and that he could become the highest-paid non-quarterback in the league.
So, the contracts of Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill could be factors, but Aaron Donald’s three-year, $95 million deal could also be used as a barometer. He’s paid $31.7 million in annual average value.
Jefferson, 23, is the fulcrum of the Vikings’ passing attack. He led the league in targets last season and was ninth in dominator rating, a metric that measures what percentage of a team’s receiving yards and touchdowns the receiver accounts for.
The only thing that could make things tricky for the Vikings is Kirk Cousins and his contract. While there’s only one year left on the deal, it also carries a dead cap charge of $28.5 million next season in the form of a void year unless he is re-signed.
Inking Jefferson to the kind of contract he might command muddies the waters of a quarterback budget. But if the Rams could figure out how to pay Donald and Stafford at the same time, it’s a problem the Vikings should be able to solve.
Ultimately, Jefferson will wind up with a deal that pays more annually than Donald’s with a higher guaranteed number than Kupp.
Projected Deal: Five years, $160 million. $120 million guaranteed.