Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

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The Philadelphia Phillies (24-27) and Atlanta Braves (31-20) clash in a Saturday afternoon affair at Truist Park at 4:10 p.m. ET (FS1).

Season series: tied 1-1

Philadelphia lost Thursday’s series opener 8-5 but bounced back with a 6-4 win Friday. The Game 2 victory marked just the 3rd road win for the Phillies since April 30.

Braves pitching owns a 3.70 ERA for the season (5th MLB). But a spate of walks and home runs has led to the club posting a 4.75 mark over its last 10 games.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Charlie Morton

Wheeler (3-4 4.11 ERA) makes his 11th start of the season. He has a 1.23 WHIP 2.2 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 through 57 IP.

Current Atlanta batters own an aggregate .671 OPS against him
Facing a Braves club that has logged a .947 OPS against southpaws and a .729 figure against right-handers
Has gone 6+ innings in 5 of his last 6 starts

Morton (5-4 3.61 ERA) is making his 10th start of the 2023 season. He has a 1.41 WHIP 3.4 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 through 52 1/3 IP.

Coming off a rough start where he allowed 6 ER over 5 IP (had logged a 2.32 ERA over previous 5 starts)
Philadelphia batters against Morton: .721 OPS aggregate

Phillies at Braves odds

Moneyline: Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Braves -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-178) | Braves -1.5 (+146)
Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -122)

Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5 Phillies 4

Moneyline

The Braves are 11-4 in 1-run games and may be overrated a bit overall.

Looking at the starting pitching matchup Wheeler has been hurt by a low 65.8% left-on-base rate and Morton has been aided by a high 78.4% figure. Those are clutch plate appearances somewhat unfairly coloring the surface numbers of each hurler — to Wheeler’s detriment and Morton’s benefit.

Both starters also head into this contest on regular rest. That’s a boon for Wheeler and the Phillies; the right-hander has strong career and recent-season splits on such rest. With his solid history against Braves bats and with Atlanta having a more average offense against right-handers Philly is a lean.

Wheeler did go 108 pitches in his last start however and there is a slight pull toward an Under in this match-up. And the Run Line has more attractive pricing relative to the risk.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

The Phillies have the advantage on the bump but Wheeler just hasn’t performed well enough to back fully.

Wheeler has struck out at least 7 Braves in his last 5 starts against them. He has 7+ K’s in 2 of his last 3 starts and they’re offering us plus-money for it. Atlanta isn’t striking out as frequently as they did last year but they’re still in the top half in terms of whiff ease at 8.71/game.

Take ZACK WHEELER OVER 6.5 K’S (+108).

Over/Under

The books have the total handicapped well today and the risk isn’t worth the reward. So let’s get creative.

Head to the Line/Total Parlays section on FanDuel and let’s go with PHILLIES +2.5/OVER 6.5 (-125). That gives you a smaller total to hit and the Phils get a couple of runs of insurance. These teams have combined for 10 runs or more in their last 4 meetings with Philadelphia taking 3 of 4.