It takes two to tango in an NBA trade. Meanwhile, months of scouting, a surplus of rankings and more big boards than anyone can count mean the NBA draft is often an exercise in groupthink.

Free agency, the third player-acquisition avenue, is different.

Teams are at liberty to pay as much as they’re able to for a player they believe can solve their problems. So when it goes wrong, NBA organizations have no one to blame but themselves. Sure, the market has some say here. Free agents often command competing offers that give some idea of what they’re worth.

But the decision to hand a massive, multi-year deal to a particular free agent is still ultimately controlled by a team’s risk tolerance, in-house scouting and the strictures of the salary cap. If you’ve got the resources, you can do whatever you want with them.

The players featured here should cause teams to take extra care in their evaluations. They’re risky, likely to cost a ton and come with serious questions about their ability to deliver on the hype surrounding them.

James Harden, Player Option

James Harden’s first full year with the Philadelphia 76ers proved that even without the downhill burst and individual shot creation that defined his prime, he could still succeed as a scaled-back facilitator. A league-leading 10.7 assists per game and a 60.7 true shooting percentage easily could have earned Harden an 11th career All-Star nod, even with the lowest usage rate since he was a reserve for the 2011-12 Oklahoma City Thunder.

There’s no doubt Harden still has legitimate value, but it’s almost impossible to imagine him producing at a level that would justify the massive contract he’s likely to receive in free agency.

Harden will have to decline his $35.6 million player option for 2023-24 to hit free agency in the first place, but that feels like a given in light of him opting out of $47.3 million last offseason. Even if he makes the common veteran move of exchanging dollars for years and seeks a longer contract at a reduced annual rate, Harden is still highly likely to be overpaid. Remember, as solid as he was offensively this year, he was essentially a second option whose defense continued to lag. That’s not a $30 million-per-year profile, especially with the process of decline already underway.

Plus, Harden might be wise to drive a harder bargain than he did a year ago. He knows the 76ers don’t have the resources to replace him if he leaves, and the Houston Rockets are shaping up as a deep-pocketed suitor capable of turbo-charging the bidding war.

Harden faces long odds to reproduce 2022-23’s level next year at age 34. Last season saw him hit nine-year lows in both drives per game and field-goal percentage when attacking the rim. He also averaged his fewest free-throw attempts per game since he left OKC.

With his extreme mileage and injury history (average of 55 games played over the last three years), the career cliff’s edge is approaching. Someone is going to pay Harden as if it’s 2017, and that will be a mistake.