The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Tampa Bay Rays meet in MLB action from Tropicana Field on Thursday.

Odds

Tampa Bay is a -190 home favorite while Pittsburgh is a +165 road underdog. The total for this game is set at 8.5 runs.

Starting Pitching Matchup

Vince Velasquez will start for the Pirates here and is 4-2 with a 3.06 ERA and 32 strikeouts. Zach Eflin goes for the Rays and is 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 21 strikeouts this season.

Matchup History

Tampa Bay’s 8-1 win over the Pirates on Wednesday made it five straight wins for the Rays in this head-to-head matchup.

Trends

Pittsburgh is 11-4 in their last 15 games overall and 23-52 in their last 75 interleague games while the over is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games against a team with a winning record. Tampa Bay is 25-6 in their last 31 games overall and 42-15 in their last 57 home games while the under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 home games.

Pick

I’m backing the Rays here. Don’t get me wrong, both teams are playing well and both Velasquez and Eflin have been surprising arms for their respective rotations early on this season. However, the Rays are the more proven team to this point and are at home and while the Pirates have had a nice start, I have to see that it’s sustainable before investing in them long term. All in all, I think the Rays get it done here so give me Tampa Bay.