Welcome to the year’s first edition of the 2023-24 MLB free agent power rankings! With this series we will attempt to rank players who are on track for free agency after the 2023 season, by measure of their estimated earning power.
MLBTR will take periodic looks at the top of the class from now through the remainder of the season. Season performance will start to influence these rankings, but 11 or 12 games into the season, it’s not much of a factor in the April edition. By the end of the season, 2023 results will matter quite a bit. A strong platform year can elevate any player’s status in free agency, just as a poor walk year can tank their stock.
Our power rankings are compiled collaboratively by myself and MLBTR writers Anthony Franco, Steve Adams, and Darragh McDonald. Players with opt-out clauses and player options are included, even if they’ve previously given indications they may forgo the opportunity to return to the market.
The 2023-24 MLB free agent class is an odd one. It’s headed up by Shohei Ohtani, the Angels’ incredible two-way superstar, but seems to fall short of last winter’s class that was led by Aaron Judge and four star shortstops.
As can often happen, the 2023-24 class has had some of its thunder stolen by extensions. Notably, Manny Machado and Rafael Devers inked extensions in excess of $300MM. Yu Darvish and Miles Mikolas came off the market this year as well. Other players who would have been free agents after ’23 had they not signed extensions include Matt Olson, Tyler Glasnow, Luis Castillo, Ozzie Albies, Yoan Moncada, Ryan McMahon, and Kyle Freeland. And just a few hours prior to the publishing of this list, the Cubs agreed to an odd three-year deal to retain Ian Happ, who had been ranked eighth. Additional players from the list below may also come off the board with extensions before free agency opens in November.
Let’s get to it!
1. Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH, Angels: Ohtani signed with the Angels in December 2017, generating significant hype given his ability to serve as both a starting pitcher and regular designated hitter. He’d done so for five years as a member of NPB’s Nippon Ham Fighters. No one knew how this experiment would go, as even Babe Ruth quickly phased out pitching after he started setting home run records in 1919.
Scouts were skeptical, but Ohtani posted a huge 149 wRC+ in 367 plate appearances as a rookie, while also pitching to a 3.31 ERA in ten starts. The performance netted him the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2018. But aside from dealing with blisters that year, Ohtani came down with an elbow sprain in June. He got a platelet-rich plasma injection, stopped pitching for the season, and continued hitting. He returned to the mound for a brief outing in September that year, and then underwent Tommy John surgery after the season ended.
Ohtani was still able to hit in 2019, returning in May of that year and posting a 120 wRC+ on the season. That campaign ended early with surgery to address a bipartite patella in his left knee. The pandemic delayed the start of the 2020 season, resulting in a gap of nearly two years between Major League pitching appearances for Ohtani.
Based on where he went in my fantasy baseball drafts in March 2021, expectations were relatively low for Ohtani entering that season. Ohtani shattered those expectations, winning the AL MVP award in ’21 and finishing second in ’22. He posted a 146 wRC+ with 80 home runs in 1,305 plate appearances during that time. Ohtani also made 51 starts across 296 1/3 innings, posting a 2.70 ERA and 31.4 K%. His pitching performance netted a fourth place Cy Young finish in 2022.
Over the past two seasons, Ohtani accomplished what many thought simply could not be done in modern MLB. Ohtani, who turns 29 in July, is simultaneously one of the best hitters and pitchers in MLB. He was worth 17.5 WAR from 2021-22, edging out Aaron Judge for the best in the game. Ohtani is a once-in-a-lifetime sensation at the peak of his abilities.
Ohtani is earning an arbitration-record $30MM this year, and he’s on track for free agency after the season. Angels owner Arte Moreno was unwilling to part with Ohtani despite trade offers last summer, just as he was ultimately unwilling to sell his team this winter despite soliciting bids. Moreno hopes to retain his two-way star, but told reporters, “Ohtani has to want to be here too.” Moreno expressed willingness to go over the competitive balance tax threshold, but also admitted that the club has not had discussions with Ohtani.
The Angels have never had a winning season in Ohtani’s five years with the club, though that might change in 2023. Asked about the extension possibility in February, agent Nez Balelo said, “I’ve always been open to it. But there’s several layers to this one, and Shohei’s earned the right to play through the year, explore free agency, and we’ll see where it shakes out.”
So, what actually drives Shohei Ohtani? There’s evidence it’s not entirely money, since he chose to come to MLB at age 23. His age limited him to a $2.3MM signing bonus, when waiting two more years could’ve resulted in over $100MM more. Ohtani’s six other finalists in 2017 were the Mariners, Rangers, Cubs, Padres, Dodgers and Giants. At the time, Balelo said, “While there has been much speculation about what would drive Shohei’s decision, what mattered to him most wasn’t market size, time zone or league but that he felt a true bond with the Angels.”
Still, many have noted that most of Ohtani’s finalists were on the West Coast. And it’s certainly logical that after accomplishing so much as an individual, Ohtani will focus on joining a team he believes will be a perennial contender. The Dodgers and Padres are oft-cited potential matches, and most expect the Mets to be heavily involved. The Giants took two large swings at star players last winter, and the Yankees and Mariners shouldn’t be discounted. I’m sure you could name a half-dozen at least semi-reasonable fits. In terms of payroll commitments for 2024 and beyond, the Dodgers, Giants, and Mariners are much better-positioned than the Yankees, Padres, and Mets, though it’s difficult to picture Steve Cohen staying out of the fray.
The largest contract in MLB history remains Mookie Betts’ 12-year, $365MM extension in July 2020, though it included significant deferrals. Ohtani’s teammate Mike Trout received $360MM in new money back in 2019. So no one has even signed for $400MM yet, though the Padres reportedly offered Judge around $415MM and the Nationals offered Juan Soto $440MM.
No one doubts that Ohtani will become the first player to truly top the $400MM barrier, and common speculation is that he will reach $500MM. Where will the bidding stop for a generational talent and marketing bonanza such as Ohtani? I’m not willing to rule out a $600MM contract, though perhaps something in the $550MM range could represent a sweet spot.
The 2022-23 offseason included a trend toward extra-long contracts, with Machado, Trea Turner, and Xander Bogaerts all getting 11-year contracts paying through age 40. The goal of those was to reduce the average annual value and accompanying CBT hit. Going through age 40 would mean a 12-year contract for Ohtani, though I personally think a 14-year term has a chance of passing MLB’s scrutiny. It’s been suggested that the Padres’ concept of paying Judge through age 44 wouldn’t have passed muster, but that’s not to say going through age 42 is off the table.
If Ohtani aims for maximum dollars and the $40MM standard only Judge has achieved on a long-term deal, I think 14 years and $560MM could be an end point. There’s also an argument that since Ohtani is both an elite hitter and pitcher, he should land an average annual value in excess of $45MM or even $50MM. Max Scherzer currently holds the record at $43,333,333.33 per year, though only Judge received $40MM for more than three years.
I could also be wildly wrong and Ohtani could fall well short of the $560MM guess. Nor do I have any idea whether Ohtani will accept the largest deal proposed to him. Buckle up for what could be the most fascinating and frenzied free agency in MLBTR’s 17-year history. Our Ohtani page can be found here, which we’ll be beefing up with some additional quality content soon.
2. Julio Urias, SP, Dodgers: Urias may not generate the hype of Ohtani, but the lefty is a former prodigy in his own right and our clear #2 for earning power in this free agent class. After being handled carefully as a minor leaguer, Urias made his Major League debut for the Dodgers at the age of 19, way back in 2016. His pitch counts were kept low, and at the end of a successful season Urias made two playoff appearances for the Dodgers, including an NLCS start.
Unfortunately, Urias came down with a serious shoulder injury in June 2017, and anterior capsule surgery was required. He went nearly 16 months between MLB appearances. In 2019, Urias was again handled carefully, pitching out of the bullpen more often than the rotation. That year, he was arrested on suspicion of domestic violence, according to the LAPD. MLB ultimately issued a 20-game suspension.