The Colorado Avalanche (38-22-6) play the 3rd contest in a 4-game road trip against the Ottawa Senators (33-30-4) on Thursday at Canadian Tire Center. Puck drop is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+).
The Avalanche opened the road trip by doubling up the Montreal Canadiens 8-4 Monday and topping the Toronto Maple Leafs 2-1 in a shootout Wednesday.
The Senators have dropped the past 3 outings by a combined score of 16-6, as goaltending and defense have been an issue. The losses come at a critical time, too, as Ottawa is just 8 points out of the final wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference with 15 regular-season games remaining.
Ottawa suffered a 7-0 defeat in the first meeting in Denver on Jan. 14, as Avs backup G Pavel Francouz stopped all 29 shots he faced, while Colorado’s LW Artturi Lehkonen, C Alex Newhook and RW Mikko Rantanen each registered 2 goals. The Sens won’t have to deal with Lehkonen, as he is sidelined at least a month with a broken finger.
Avalanche at Senators odds
- Moneyline (ML): Avalanche -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Senators +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Avalanche -1.5 (+165) | Senators +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -130 | U: +110)
Avalanche at Senators projected goalies
Justus Annunen (1-1-0, 3.58 GAA, .854 SV%) vs Mads Sogaard (5-3-1, 3.28 GAA, .888 SV%)
With Alexandar Georgiev tasked with starting the front end of the back-to-back set in Toronto Wednesday, Annunen is expected to start Thursday. The Finnish backup, getting a chance while Francouz is down with a lower-body injury, stopped 19 of 20 shots for a win in his season debut in St. Louis on Feb. 18. He wasn’t as fortunate last time out against New Jersey on March 1, coughing up 6 goals on 28 shots.
Sogaard turned aside just 27 of the 32 shots he faced against the Edmonton Oilers last time out on Tuesday. He has allowed 4 or more goals in each of his past 4 outings, going 1-3-0 with a 4.52 GAA and .843 SV% in 4 March starts.
Avalanche at Senators picks and predictions
Prediction
Avalanche 5, Senators 3
Moneyline
The AVALANCHE (-140) are actually a surprisingly low moneyline play. It might be due to the back-to-back situation, or because the Avs are likely to use a backup goaltender, but this is a Colorado team that manhandled the Senators in the first meeting by a touchdown.
Colorado is also 19-7 in its last 26 games when playing on no rest and is 6-1 in its last 7 road games.
The Sens have dropped 4 of the past 5 games, are 1-4 in their past 5 against Western Conference foes and 17-35 in the past 52 tries against winning teams.
Puck line/Against the spread
The AVALANCHE -1.5 (+165) at plus money is worth playing lightly.
While it’s a difficult turnaround playing on no rest and Colorado may have to have an unproven rookie in the cage, the Sens are rolling out Sogaard and he’s been very giving.
Over/Under
The OVER 6.5 (-130) is the best play on the board in a possible matchup of 2 unproven and shaky goaltenders.
The Avs might have some heavy legs after skating in Toronto less than 24 hours ago, leading to some defensive lapses.
The Over is 4-1 in the past 5 against Eastern Conference teams, with the Under cashing Wednesday in Toronto. The Over is also 7-2 in the past 9 against Atlantic Division teams. The Avs took care of the Over on their own against the Sens in the first meeting, too.
The Over is 5-2 in the past 7 meetings in Canada’s capital city while cashing at a 16-5 clip in the past 21 in this series.