Tuesday night belonged to LeBron James. But Timo Meier sure had himself a nice evening, too: two goals, one assist and the overtime winner for the San Jose Sharks over the Lightning. Not bad.
And you can bet many other NHL teams were watching closely, Mr. Meier, because you are unofficially the belle of the Trade Deadline ball.
With the Vancouver Canucks trading Bo Horvat to the New York Islanders last week, Sharks right winger Meier replaced him as the No. 1 Trade Target on our own Frank Seravalli’s board. It’s no wonder Meier instantly jumped to the top spot; he’s just the right blend of available and impactful.
As a restricted free agent following this season, he’s owed a hefty $10 million qualifying offer, and the Sharks, finding their way under new GM Mike Grier, are nowhere remotely close to Stanley Cup contention. Inching toward more of a traditional rebuild, they can get a massive return for Meier, especially if the acquiring team bakes in a long-term contract extension, which is likely to carry an AAV of $8-9 million, per Seravalli.
Meier, smack in his prime at 26, is a natural shooter who absolutely peppers opposing goaltenders. Per Natural Stat Trick, over the past three seasons, Meier leads all NHL players in shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Only Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak average more 5-on-5 shots on goal per 60, while Meier also sits second only to Auston Matthews in individual scoring chances per 60. Meier tilts the ice and brings solid physicality to his game. For a deeper dive on Meier’s considerable toolbox, here is Seravalli’s profile from January.
Meier may alter the league’s power balance more than any other piece leading up to the March 3 trade deadline. He’s a relatively complex asset to acquire, however, factoring in his current $6 million cap hit, qualifying offer and acquisition cost, What I’m hearing is a first-rounder — and one Grade-A or two Grade-B prospects, or one good prospect and a young, established NHL player, which is reportedly some combination of a first-round pick, a top prospect, multiple B-grade prospects and a young roster player. That means not every contender is a realistic suitor for him.
But who might be? Consider these five teams, listed alphabetically.
(Sorry, Toronto Maple Leafs fans. You didn’t make the cut. He’d be an exciting fit, but the Leafs already have roughly $40 million invested in four forwards. Imagine if it was pushing $50 million for five? Doesn’t seem possible.)
Carolina Hurricanes
When Seravalli published his Meier profile and listed some potential suitors, the Canes weren’t on the list, but Max Pacioretty re-tore his Achilles tendon just hours after we ran the Meier story and may have changed Carolina’s deadline priorities.
Why he makes sense: It’s time for the Hurricanes to take a big swing. They’ve finished with a points percentage no lower than .596 in any of their four completed seasons under coach Rod Brind’Amour, they’re currently tracking for a franchise-high .745 mark, and they haven’t reached the Stanley Cup Final since they won it all with Brind’Amour still playing in 2005-06. The always-conscientious Canes have the league’s No. 4 defense and No. 7 penalty kill but are 10th in offense and have the 20th-best power play. They haven’t had a 40-goal scorer since Eric Staal in 2008-09. Meier is on pace for 47. And with Pacioretty‘s $7 million AAV landing on LTIR, cap space shouldn’t be a problem. That includes next year, too, as Pacioretty’s money comes off the books this summer.
What might it cost: The Canes have their first-round picks for the next three drafts. They’d have to dip into their prospect cache and include someone like defensemen Scott Morrow. Jack Drury has already gotten a look at the NHL level but has been squeezed out by Carolina’s depth. Maybe he’s a fit. If the Sharks want to shoot for the moon, they could ask for promising young forward Seth Jarvis. I assume the Canes wouldn’t want to part with Pyotr Kochetkov, who is looks like their goalie of the future and a steal with a $2 million AAV for the next three seasons. But could GMs Don Waddell and Grier, who came together on the Brent Burns trade in the summer, scratch each other’s backs with Antti Raanta going to San Jose as a throw-in? He’d be a flippable asset to net the Sharks another pick, while Kochetkov would no longer be blocked at the NHL level and could form a playoff-ready tandem with Frederik Andersen.
Fly in the ointment: Is a winger really what Carolina needs most? Neither Paul Stastny nor Jesperi Kotkaniemi has adequately filled the Vincent Trocheck void at center. Would the Canes be better off chasing, for instance, Ryan O’Reilly?