I’m not a betting man, and my predictions generally range from laughable to abysmal. But if I had to guess one thing that would happen this spring, I would say a monster extension between the Padres and star third baseman Manny Machado.
No sources are saying a deal is close, or at this point, even under discussion. But Padres general manager A.J. Preller said recently on Buster Olney’s podcast that he intends to touch base this spring with Machado on a new deal. Machado, who turns 31 in July, can opt out at the end of the season. That’s his leverage with the Padres, and he won’t be afraid to use it. Why would he be after the recent eruption in the free-agent market?
To keep Machado, the Padres will need to beat the remaining six years and $180 million on his contract — beat it in length, and beat it in average annual value. Another 10-year deal, this time for more than $300 million, would not appear out of the question. Machado just watched the Padres offer Trea Turner $342 million and ponder an even larger deal for Aaron Judge before signing Xander Bogaerts for an unexpected $280 million.
A 10-year contract would take Machado through his age-40 season. But the Padres just signed Bogaerts through age 40, didn’t they? The Phillies did the same with Turner, and the Yankees secured Judge through age 39.
Both Preller and Machado’s agent, Dan Lozano, declined comment. But here are five reasons the Padres and Machado should be motivated to agree on an extension before Opening Day, the deadline players generally set for deals of this nature so they can avoid distraction once the regular season begins.
1. Steve Cohen
The Mets’ owner is lurking. He’s always lurking. And uh, in case you missed it, Cohen agreed in December with Carlos Correa on a 12-year, $315 million contract to play third base, only to see the deal collapse because of concerns over Correa’s right ankle.
The Mets were ready to add Correa even though Eduardo Escobar was under contract for one more guaranteed season and Brett Baty loomed as their third baseman of the future. Shohei Ohtani likely will be the Mets’ No. 1 target if he hits the open market next winter. But if the Dodgers or some other team lands Ohtani, Machado will be quite an enticing alternative.
Ditto for the Yankees, who likely will say farewell to Josh Donaldson; the Cubs, who still could use an impact bat after signing Dansby Swanson; and the Giants, who might actually win the bidding for a major free agent one of these years. Heck, the Dodgers might even entertain round two with Machado, who is more mature than he was when they traded for him in 2018. Other teams might enter the bidding as well.