In another irrefutably valiant, never-ending effort to will a gloriously busy 2023 NBA trade deadline into existence, we have another fresh batch of bold predictions to disperse among—and for the sake of—the masses.
If you didn’t check out the first package of—*sarcasm font*—courageous crystyal-balling, you can do that here. Some teams are making second cameos, but the predictions will be different. No double-dipping around these parts.
Just like last time, my stab-in-the-dark fortune-tellings are not designed to be inflammatory or outright wrong. They are predictions that journey at least slightly off the ad-nauseam path I actually believe, in my heart of hearts, will come true.
These convictions are not born, verbatim, from the rumor mill. They are more so inklings and (meant-to-be) educational guesstimates. That’s what makes them bold.
And, frankly, at a time when Everyone In The Know is bracing us for a humdrum deadline, we could all stand to indulge our inner, step-out-on-a-somewhat-sturdy-limb hunches. I’ve already cannonballed into the mindset. Come join me, won’t you?
There Will Be More Trades Than Last Year
Am I taking this “Will the trade-deadline tumult into existence!” bit a little too far. Potentially. But as Bleacher Report’s resident live-trade grader person, it comes at the expense of my own workload and sanity. So, um, I think that makes it OK.
Last year, we had 16 deals go down during trade-deadline week. That number will be surpassed this season.
Believe it or not, actual forethought went into this prediction. I’m not saying we’ll get something on the level of James Harden frowny-facing his way to the Philadelphia 76ers. I’m saying there will be trades, of all shapes and sizes, in droves.
Yes, the dearth of sellers poses an obstacle. But 24 teams are currently within three losses of a play-in spot. Plenty of business is inevitable when so many franchises can convince themselves that they have something to compete for this season.
Perhaps everyone winds up picking off the carcasses of the same four to six sellers. Whatever. There will be player movement, even if it’s more geared toward odds and ends and finishing touches rather than landscape-shifting splashes.
And let’s not forget the inevitable bookkeeping deals. The Boston Celtics already made one by offloading Noah Vonleh to the San Antonio Spurs. Philly is just over $1 million into the tax and looking to duck it. Underachievers like the Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns could try to cut their tax bills. The Spurs and Indiana Pacers have cap space. The money-is-no-object L.A. Clippers have a $9.7 million trade exception. The rebuilding-but-also-good-now Oklahoma City Thunder ($10.2 million) and Utah Jazz ($9.8 million) have sizable TPEs of their own.
Bank on, if not wish upon, a flurry of 17 or more deadline-week trades. They’re totally coming. I think.
At Least 2 of Grizzlies, Knicks & Suns Trade Multiple 1sts (or Prospect Equivalents)
This doesn’t sound too bold on its face. But then you start to poke around the league’s draft commitments. So many squads have bankrupted their pick stash by outright dealing them well into the future or protected singular selections for all of eternity and prevented themselves from guaranteeing firsts before, approximately, the end of time.
Combine this with the shallow sellers market, and ticketing two relevant teams for multi-pick (or first-round prospect) trades is actually quite counterintuitive.
Especially when we’re limiting ourselves to one of the Memphis Grizzlies and Phoenix Suns making something happen.
The Grizzlies are notoriously married to their internal development and have eschewed opportunities to consolidate picks and prospects. The smart bet is they’ll do nothing or something teensy-tiny.
Forget that. The Grizzlies are second in the Western Conference and entering established-contender territory. That designation comes with expectations and casts a microscope on their flaws. Memphis still struggles to generate offense inside the half-court beyond cleaning up its own misses. With all its own first-round picks, Golden State’s 2024 selection (top-four protection) and recent first-rounders like Santi Aldama, Jake LaRavia, David Roddy and Ziaire Williams, they have the ammo and incentive to wheel and deal on a meaningful level. Finally.
For their part, the Suns have also been inexplicably hesitant to swing higher-level trades under general manager James Jones. Sure, they acquired Chris Paul. But that was, first and foremost, an obvious move. It was also almost three years ago.
We know they will move the inactively employed Jae Crowder, because it would be ridiculous not to move him. Whether they can pull off something bigger when the sale of the team has yet to be finalized is a different story. Approval needs to pass through so many different people at this point.