The NFL playoffs move on to the Divisional Round this weekend and it all gets started on Saturday afternoon with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars. Kansas City earned a first-round bye as the #1 seed in the AFC, while Jacksonville advanced with an amazing comeback from 27-0 down to defeat the Los Angeles Chargers 31-30.
Chiefs -8.5 (-112)
Patrick Mahomes to score a touchdown (+300)
Trevor Lawrence Over 251.5 passing yards (-114)
Same Game Parlay odds: +1249
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Patrick Mahomes finding the endzone would obviously work well with a Kansas City win and cover. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Trevor Lawrence to rack up his fair share of passing yards, but even if he does there is no reason why the Chiefs can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars (-112)
These 2 teams also met in Week 10 and the Chiefs as -9.5 favorites covered the spread in a 27-17 victory that was even more comfortable than the final margin suggests. Head coach Andy Reid’s squad has won 7 of 8 games since that result, too, so they are a well-oiled machine heading into yet another playoff campaign. Moreover, Kansas City sat at home and enjoyed a first-round bye while Jacksonville slogged through an extremely tough wild-card contest that obviously required a full 60 minutes of football. Now the Jags have to go on the road, too. This doesn’t set up well for the Jags, so look for their successful season to be ended by the Chiefs in emphatic fashion.
Patrick Mahomes to score a touchdown (+300)
This is also one of my best touchdown scorer bets, and why not? In the biggest moments and under the most pressure (yes, I’m talking about the playoffs), Mahomes generally takes matters into his own hands. The NFL MVP favorite has scored in 5 of his 11 career playoff games. It’s also worth noting that all 4 of his rushing touchdowns this season have come in the last 10 outings. This prop has great value.
Trevor Lawrence Over 251.5 passing yards (-114)
For obvious reasons, this prop doesn’t really conflict with a convincing win by Kansas City. After all, if the Jaguars are playing from behind the entire way then Lawrence will have to air it out early and often. That was the case in Week 10, when the former #1 overall pick completed 29 of 40 attempts for 259 yards with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions. Lawrence has exceeded the 300 mark 4 times dating back to October 23, went for 288 last weekend against the Chargers and has surpassed this 251.5 quota on 4 other occasions.