The Milwaukee Bucks (27-15) and Miami Heat (23-20) meet Saturday at Miami-Dade Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (ABC).
These teams met Thursday as the Heat covered the spread as 5.5-point home favorites 108-102 and we predicted this game correctly, almost down to the exact score. Miami G Gabe Vincent scored a career-high 28 points as the Heat improved to a season-best 3 games over .500. Milwaukee G Jrue Holiday finished with 24 points and a game-high 11 assists in the absence of F Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) who is questionable to return to the lineup Saturday.
The Bucks are 10-4 straight up after a loss.
These teams have alternated wins and losses over the last 5 meetings, dating back to last season.
Bucks at Heat odds
- Moneyline (ML): Bucks +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Heat -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Bucks +4.5 (-115) | Heat -1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 213.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
Bucks at Heat key injuries
Bucks
- F Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) questionable
- F Khris Middleton (knee) out
Heat
- G Tyler Herro (Achilles) questionable
- G Kyle Lowry (knee) out
- F Caleb Martin (quad) probable
- F Duncan Robinson (finger) out
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Bucks at Heat picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 103, Bucks 102
Moneyline
PASS.
The Heat (-170) should win again Saturday, but the price on their moneyline is a little high considering Milwaukee has the 2nd-best winning percentage in the league coming off a loss (71.4%). Bet the spread or total instead.
Against the spread
BET BUCKS +4.5 (-115).
The Bucks should bounce back after blowing a 15-point lead Thursday. The last time the Bucks blew a lead of 15 or more points was Dec. 28 in a 119-113 overtime loss at the Chicago Bulls. In Milwaukee’s next game on Dec. 30, it covered as a 7.5-point home favorite in a 123-114 win vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves. Look for the Bucks to cover Saturday in a similar spot.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 213.5(-108).
The Under is 4-1 in Milwaukee’s last 5 games and 4-0 in Miami’s last 4 games following a win in its previous game. These teams historically play low-scoring games vs. each other as the Under is 23-9-1 in the last 33 meetings in Miami and Saturday should be another low-scoring affair.