We have made it to the penultimate week of a whacky NFL season. I feel like a broken record, but it seems like the line moves and storylines get more volatile each week as we gear up for what should be an unforgettable postseason. But all of that is just outside noise for now, as I do my best to hone in and focus on the task at hand, which is to find current investable opportunities at the time of publication. Onward we go.
As usual, our oddsmaker pal Casey Degnon from Superbook offers his expertise as we highlight some of the most impactful injuries, trends and key matchups to watch this week. Please check my portfolio at the bottom for the official column plays.
Player milestones and contract incentives: Finding an edge in the market
For the third year in a row I will dive deep into the various contract incentives and player milestones to find situations that offer value in the betting markets. Last year we cleaned up with this strategy, more than over 20 units in a single day. I can’t promise those types of returns again this season, but be ready to fire if the opportunity presents itself. Last year I risked almost 14 units on these props alone in Week 18, my biggest single-day risk of the entire regular season.
This strategy was hatched 2 seasons ago when the NFL prop market was still in its infancy, along with the gambling media ecosystem. Since then, both avenues have evolved significantly — which usually correlates with the erosion of value, but as always I will do my best to find value and scenarios that fit this strategy.
Which players to target this week
This week there are two situations to monitor this week. The first is in Kansas City, where Juju Smith-Schuster is 23 receiving yards away from 900 for the season and a $1.5 million bonus. Smith-Schuster’s prop number is likely to be significantly higher than 23, but it’s a good bet he will be involved early.
The other situation is a significant player milestone surrounding Justin Fields, who is currently 195 yards away from tying Lamar Jackson’s single-season mark for a QB of 1,206. Fields gets the porous Lions defense this week, a team he torched for 147 yards on the ground already this season and 320 yards to the Panthers last week. Fields is a good bet to go over his rush yards prop this week, and probably next week as well depending on where the number sits.
Week 17 market update: Which games I’m targeting for my portfolio
Dolphins at Patriots: Teddy time
Miami opened a slight favorite last week before the line flipped on Monday after news that Teddy Bridgewater would start in the place of a concussed Tua Tagovailoa. The move implied about a 4.5 point drop-off from starter to backup from Dolphins -2 to +3, which might be an overreaction if you consider Bridgewater’s experience and stellar record against the spread. Bridgewater is 26-9 ATS in his carer as an underdog and 19-4 ATS as a road underdog during his career, with all of those games coming while he was a member of the Panthers and Broncos.
The other side to this buy-low handicap is the Patriots, who have lost 4 of 5 and have seen a dramatic drop-off in production on both sides of the ball, most notably on defense. Over the last 5 weeks New England’s stop unit is 13th in EPA/play after leading the NFL in that category from Weeks 1-11. I don’t have a lot of nice things to say about either team right now, but I trust Bridgewater more than Mac Jones, and while it fell short of making my “best bet” card this week, I definitely see value with the Dolphins catching a full 3. If the line shrinks to 2.5, the best move is to tease Miami through both key numbers up to 8.5
Jets at Seahawks: Target the total
I was surprised to see the total drop after Mike White was announced the starter earlier this week, opening at 44.5 on the lookahead and dipping to 42.5 at the time of publication. Obviously it doesn’t have as much value now as it did last week when it was higher than the key number of 44, but it’s obvious to me the market favors the under based on the move after White was confirmed in. If you dig into the trenches, this move makes more sense.
Both offensive lines are in shambles right now, especially Seattle, which suffered a key injury at RT last week with Abraham Lucas going down against the Chiefs. His replacement Stone Forstyhe did not play well, allowing 3 pressures and being called for a penalty in relief. The Seahawks also rotated Gabe Jackson and Phil Haynes at RG but neither played well allowing a combined 6 pressures. The Jets’ defensive line is one of the deepest and most productive units in the NFL, generating pressure at a very high rate despite blitzing at the 2nd lowest rate in the league.
Overall the Jets are 6th in DVOA and 3rd in weighted DVOA, which takes into account recent form. The Jets offensive line is also struggling, allowing 15 pressures against the Jags last week, 13 of which coming from the right side. I’m not sure the Seattle defense, which struggles to generate pressure this season and is 31st in pass rush win rate, will be able to take full advantage but I don’t see either offensive line creating a ton of movement in this game.
The final push which got me to the window on the under in this game is the struggles both offenses are having in the red zone. The Jets are 28th this season in red zone TD scoring rate (46%) with the Seahawks not doing much better sitting at 22nd (52%). They are also one of the best in the league at preventing touchdowns in the red zone, ranked 6th (51%) with Seattle struggling in that department ranked 26th (62%). If both teams are settling for field goals in the red zone more often than not, I feel confident this game will stay under.
Bills at Bengals: AFC Alpha
The injury to La’el Collins is a game-changer for how I view this Bengals team, especially in the short term. Cincinnati has yet to name a replacement for Collins, but Joe Burrow slipped during an interview this week and mentioned it could be Hakeem Adeniji, who started 8 games at RT last season including all four during the Super Bowl run, finishing with a below-average PFF grade allowing 3 sacks and committing 7 total penalties. It’s no secret the Bengals offensive line was almost the reason why Cincinnati failed to reach the big game last year, but things were trending in a positive direction before the Collins injury last week.
Burrow and the Bengals are the toast of the NFL right now, winning 7 straight overall with a league best 12-3 record against the spread this season. But I think Josh Allen and this very talented Bills team also deserve our full and undivided attention, especially at a relatively cheap price. Buffalo has been favored by at least a field goal in every game this season except Week 6 at the Chiefs and Week 1 at the Rams, winning both and covering easily in the opener against Los Angeles.
I can see the Bengals still making noise in the postseason, but I thought the market was getting stretched on them last week, and even though they covered I think that was a good read, so we’ll go back to that line of thinking again this week.
Teaser Time: Finding value in an efficient market
Winning at NFL sides is one of the most difficult quests in all of betting. Why? Well because it’s the most popular market with the highest amount of handle, which also means oddsmakers pay extra attention to ensuring the lines are razor sharp. As the season wears on, the market becomes increasingly more efficient as oddsmakers collect more data points on each team.
So in theory, the more efficient the market gets, the more beatable the teaser market becomes, which allows you to manipulate this so-called efficient market by moving the line 6 points in your favor. This angle becomes even more valuable in the postseason, but there is also a teaser spot I like this week that rises to the level of a bet.
Dolphins +2.5 to +8.5 at Patriots
If you want more about this game, scroll up to the market update section for details about why I think the line has moved a bit too much as Miami moves from Tua to Teddy at QB. I can’t see this New England offense creating a margin against anyone right now, and Bridgewater’s steady veteran mentality and reliable arm might be just what the doctor ordered for a Dolphins offense that has been trending down the last few weeks.
Texans +4 to +10 vs Jaguars
This isn’t a perfect fit in our usual Wong teaser strategy, but I love this spot for the Texans and we are still moving through one key number and a couple of secondary keys. The handicap is relatively simple here, similar to the Titans on Thursday night, this game means absolutely nothing to the Jaguars. If they do take a two-score lead at any point in this game I can see Doug Pederson benching some of his starters in preparation for next week’s game, especially considering Tennessee will have an extra three days of rest going in. Houston has been playing hard for Lovie Smith the last few weeks, covering 3 straight and winning outright on the road against the Titans last week. If Jacksonville does throw in the towel I can absolutely see Houston winning this game outright, but having 10 points in my back pocket seems like one of the safest plays on the board this week.
Week 17 Best Bet: Bucs -3 (-110)
This game was featured in my “Early Birds” column this week — with Tampa Bay in the “sell high” category. Well, the market agreed with that sentiment in a big way. When I went to bed Sunday night after submitting that column Carolina was sitting as nearly a touchdown underdog, so I was flabbergasted when I woke up on Monday and saw Panthers +3.
My gut reaction was some kind of injury to Tom Brady, since lookahead lines rarely adjust by more than a field goal onto the key number of 3 without a QB injury, especially at this stage of the season when the market is relatively stable. But after collaborating with our pal ClevTA, who is doing a great job for us analyzing the NFL this season, we determined earlier this week that it was just the market finally correcting itself to who the Bucs truly are. Tampa is 3-11-1 ATS this season — the worst record in the league. It is 0-6 ATS when favored by more than a FG. The Bucs just haven’t been able to create margin this season, and it took 16 weeks for the market to finally catch up.
But that gives us an opportunity to buy low on Tampa Bay in a must-win spot with the NFC South title hanging in the balance. Say what you want about Brady and the Bucs’ offensive struggles this season, they’re still top 10 EPA/play and DVOA with great numbers against the run, which is what the Panthers will try to establish.
Carolina’s comeback story has been fun, and Steve Wilks deserves all the credit in the world for keeping the ship afloat. But the cream usually rises to the top in January, and once you remove the “Brady tax” from their price tag, betting Tampa at 3 becomes an attractive buy point.