It’s that wonderful time of year, folks. The one in which we make everyone sit down and listen while we say “bah, humbug” about Major League Baseball contracts we don’t think will age well.
What? You thought we meant that other wonderful time of year?
Nah. But getting back to the matter at hand, we’re specifically here to gaze into the future and predict which contracts that look fine now are going to turn into nightmares come 2025. Think Stephen Strasburg circa 2019 vs. Stephen Strasburg circa now.
We set the following ground rules for this exercise:
We have 10 players to get to, ranked in order from smallest looming nightmare to biggest looming nightmare. But first, those aforementioned honorable mentions.
- No Layups: Speaking of Strasburg, he and other players whose contracts have already turned sour will be relegated to the honorable mentions. Because that’s just too easy.
- Must Be Real Money: In this case, at least $20 million per year and/or $100 million in total.
- The Older and Shakier, the Better: Because it’s only fair to knock guys whose red flags are already visible.
These Contracts Are Already Nightmarish
SS Javier Báez, Detroit Tigers
2023 Status: Year 2 of 6-Year, $140 Million Deal
Báez’s contract was risky from Day 1. He spent all of 2020 and much of 2021 not hitting, in part because his plate approach went from bad to worse. So, go figure that he flopped out of the gate in hitting .238/.278/.393 for Detroit in 2022.
LF Kris Bryant, Colorado Rockies
2023 Status: Year 2 of 7-Year, $182 Million Deal
Bryant was a weird choice for the largest (non-inflation-adjusted) contract in Rockies history, given that his peak was clearly back in the mid-2010s. The remainder of his deal would thus invite skepticism even if he didn’t miss 120 games this year with back and foot injuries.
3B Anthony Rendon, Los Angeles Angels
2023 Status: Year 4 of 7-Year, $245 Million Deal
The Angels bought high when they signed Rendon after he helped the Washington Nationals win the World Series in 2019, and he was about to turn 30 years old to boot. Following a great debut in 2020, he’s been lackluster in just 105 games since then.
RHP Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals
2023 Status: Year 4 of 7-Year, $245 Million Deal
The Nats also bought high on one of their own when they re-signed Strasburg in Dec. 2019. The deal always was risky on account of his injury history, but even the biggest skeptic couldn’t have foreseen such an immediate breakdown of Strasburg’s health.
LF Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers
2023 Status: Year 4 of 9-Year, $215 Million Deal
Yelich was an MVP-level performer in both 2018 and 2019, but the latter raised questions by way of persistent back trouble and a broken kneecap. He just hasn’t been the same player since then, particularly in the power department, as he’s hit only 35 home runs in three years.