Finding a weakness for every NFL starting quarterback

Author:
ESPN

There are no perfect football players. Even the best players in their best NFL seasons will not do everything at the highest level.

This is especially true for quarterbacks. We have so many stats now that we can track quarterbacks in different situations and against different coverages and amounts of pressure. Whether it is third down, man coverage or facing a blitz, we know NFL quarterbacks have weaknesses.

I delved deep into our data at Football Outsiders (as well as ESPN Stats & Information’s numbers) to identify weaknesses for the starting quarterbacks of all 32 teams. The resulting numbers combine Football Outsiders DVOA and ESPN Total QBR, incorporating ESPN charting and NFL Next Gen Stats tracking. Some of these weaknesses are issues these players have been dealing with for years. Other weaknesses have only appeared in 2022 and, in some cases, are directly counter to the player’s stat splits in previous seasons. Let’s start with AFC quarterbacks.

AFC

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Jackson’s weakness is that he struggles when he needs to throw the ball on third down, with his DVOA consistently ranking lower for third-down passes than for his passing overall. Through Week 12, Baltimore ranked 19th on third-down passes compared with seventh on all passes. Last year, Baltimore was a horrid 28th on third-down passes compared with 16th on all passes. Jackson is reportedly dealing with a PCL sprain in his knee and could miss the next two games, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter.

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

One of Allen’s relative weaknesses is facing the blitz. He is not the worst quarterback in the league when opponents blitz, but there’s definitely a drop-off compared with other plays. This year, Allen has a 66.0 QBR against the blitz, which ranks 17th in the league. Last year, he had a 56.1 QBR against the blitz, which was 23rd. And by comparison, Allen ranks first in the league with a 77.0 QBR on non-blitzes and was second in those situations last season. A big problem with the blitz is that Allen’s accuracy goes awry. He has a 24.2% off-target percentage this year when blitzed, 31st out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks.

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Burrow is much stronger against man coverage compared with zone coverage this season. He ranks 18th with a 48.9 QBR against zone, compared with ranking ninth with a 70.8 QBR against man. The splits in 2021 were similar but smaller: 58.7 (13th) against zone and 73.6 (11th) against man.

Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns

It’s hard to find a specific Watson weakness when you go back two years to the 2020 Houston Texans. Watson was good against blitzes and standard pass rushes, against pressure or no pressure, on deep and short passes, and on passes in every direction. The one weakness came on third downs. Houston ranked eighth in pass DVOA overall but just 16th on third and fourth downs.

Watson has played two games this year after and 11-game suspension for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy by committing sexual assault as defined by the league. In those two games, he is struggling on third downs and would rank next-to-last if he had enough pass attempts to qualify for ranking. However, this isn’t a problem that has lasted Watson’s entire career. For example, in 2019, Watson was better on third down than on first or second down.

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