Both the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots will be playing on Thursday for a second consecutive week. They were part of the Thanksgiving festivities and experienced different fortunes, with Buffalo battling past the Detroit Lions and New England falling to the Minnesota Vikings.
We cashed five Same Game Parlays last week. That’s right; five. Among them was a +750 winner on the Bills-Lions in hand. With a ton of momentum, we will try to also start Week 13 on the right foot.
Bills -6.5 alternate spread (+124)
Josh Allen Over 42.5 rushing yards (-114)
Gabriel Davis to score a touchdown (+200)
Parlay odds: +657
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is the entire plan here, as Josh Allen running for a good chunk of yards and Gabriel Davis finding the endzone would obviously work well with a big win by Buffalo. Let’s break down each of the SGP legs.
Buffalo Bills -6.5 alternate spread over New England Patriots (+124)
Lines on Bills games have been a bit inflated overall this season, but the market may have overreacted in the opposite direction now. We are talking about a Buffalo team that closed at -2.5 for a road game against Kansas City in mid-October. With Thursday’s line at a modest -4.5, I think the Bills will win by at least a touchdown. There is no reason to think that even the great Bill Belichick can slow down Allen and company.
Aside from last year’s ridiculous bad-weather game, Buffalo has defeated New England by 30, 12 and 29 points dating back to 2020. The Patriots’ defense is overrated right now because it has handled weak opposition, but by better offenses – and better quarterbacks – it has been exposed. I have full faith in Allen leading visitors to a comfortable victory.
Josh Allen over 42.5 rushing yards (-114)
New England been terrible in the department of defending mobile QBs the last few years and this season is no exception. The Patriots gave up 82 yards and 107 yards to the only 2 especially mobile QBs they have faced in 2022 (Justin Fields and Lamar Jackson, respectively). Belichick-coached defenses struggle against dual-threat quarterbacks because they are so well-trained that they perform like robots. They consist of very smart players on defense and know exactly what spots they should be in and are so well prepared.
However, when opposing QBs scramble on either designed runs or plays that have broken down, the defense struggles with its relative lack of speed and athleticism. It happens time and time again. In fact, in Allen’s last 3 games against the Patriots he has rushed for 66, 64 and 39 yards. Allen has surpassed this 42.5 mark in 7 of 11 games this year and will likely do so again.
Gabriel Davis to score a touchdown (+200)
Last season, Allen had 2 of the best EPA performances by any QB against the Patriots (1 in the regular season and 1 in the playoffs). He posted his best (wild-card game) and 3rd-best (Week 16) showings for him last year at New England’s expense. He should be able to dominate both on the ground and through the air on Thursday night, and Davis figures to be 1 of the beneficiaries. Davis scored 5 touchdowns in 2 playoff games at the end of the 2021 campaign and he has scored 5 TDs this season. Now the Bills are facing a vulnerable Pats secondary in which both cornerback Jalen Mills and safety Jabrill Peppers are questionable.