The light at the end of the tunnel has arrived. In just five days, the College Football Playoff selection committee will put out its final rankings, and four Playoff semifinal tickets will be punched. But in the meantime, the committee has a Tuesday TV show to put on and a few questions it can answer to clear up the CFP picture heading into conference championship weekend.

This week’s CFP rankings are the fifth of five in-season rankings, released each Tuesday through the end of November. They provide a window into the thinking of this year’s selection committee, an understanding of what it values and how it sees these top teams — and they continue to give us a sense of the new committee chair, NC State athletic director Boo Corrigan. As a reminder, it is an incomplete evaluation. But it can be a signal as Sunday approaches.

Here are the four most pressing questions heading into this week’s rankings release.

 

1. Who is next in line if USC loses?

The selection committee may end up getting off scot-free if the teams that should win on Saturday do end up winning. Georgia, Michigan, TCU and USC would make for a very cut-and-dry top four, and no one would really have any issues with it even if you can debate the seeding. But all this presumes a USC win over Utah, a team that beat the Trojans in Salt Lake City in mid-October. The Trojans are favored to win the rematch and avenge their only loss, and they might be the hottest team in college football thanks to Heisman Trophy favorite Caleb Williams.

But … what if they lose? A bunch of teams considered to be on the outside looking in have lost in recent weeks. South Carolina knocked out Tennessee and Clemson from CFP contention in consecutive weeks, handing each a deflating second loss. Texas A&M shocked LSU on Saturday, giving the three-loss Tigers zero chance to make the CFP even if they upset Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.

That brings us to Ohio State and (gulp) Alabama. The Buckeyes are likely to land at No. 5 in this week’s rankings and be the break-glass-in-case-of-emergency team because they 1) only have one loss, even if it’s a lopsided one; 2) suffered that loss at the hands of a surefire top-four team; and 3) have two marquee wins, over a likely top-10 Penn State and a top-25 Notre Dame. Alabama’s resume consists of two (close) losses but zero marquee wins; its best win is over Texas, and that may be the only win on its resume against a team that finishes in the Top 25.

What will the committee do? It’ll have to show its cards this week because Ohio State, Alabama and Tennessee aren’t playing in conference championship games. You’d think that the team at No. 5 this week will be the one that gets subbed in if chaos ensues above it. My best guess is that team will be Ohio State, but I can’t wait to see if the committee agrees with me.